Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Monday, October 29, 2012

The Stupidity of Keynesian Economics, the New York Times, and why debt will choke the world economy to death

The title of this article in the New York Times is exactly why this world is in trouble, and why the whole concept of Keynesian economics is problematic.  A 6-year old could figure out overspending and over-indebtedness is unsustainable.  Why can't Princeton PhD economists figure it out?

Rise in Household Debt Might Be Sign of a Strengthening Recovery

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/business/rise-in-household-debt-might-be-sign-of-a-strengthening-recovery.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121027

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Niall Ferguson On Whether The Financial Crisis Will Lead To America's Decline And A Glimpse Of The "Post-Pax Americana" Dark Ages

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/niall-ferguson-whether-financial-crisis-will-lead-americas-decline-and-glimpse-post-pax-amer
"Complex systems look like they are in equilibrium, but they are not: they are constantly adapting, highly decentralized, interdependent systems and this process of adaptation can continue for quite a long time. And you think to yourself when you look at it, that's in a wonderful equilibrium. That's how we think about the economy. That is how economists teach economics. They talk about it in terms of equilibrium. The bad news is that in fact we inhabit a complex system that has virtually nothing to do with the neoclassical model that you are taught in Econ 101. And that's why the economists failed to predict the financial crisis... For me American power if you generalize beyond the realm of finance through the geopolitical system is a perfect example of a highly complex system which looks like it is in equilibrium but like all the great empires of the past is quite close to the edge of chaos. And our nightmare scenario should be that something happens to us like happened to the Soviet Union... It suddenly just falls apart. And I think the trigger, the catalyst if you want to switch to chaos theory the butterfly in the tropical rainforest that flaps its wings and posits the distant thunderstorm is going to be the credibility of fiscal policy. That just seems to me like the obvious place where things can turn nasty, and they turn nasty with amazing speed."

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Central bankers' secret meeting

An excerpt from Ed Steer:
Central banks meeting in secret it Australia... it sounds like The Creature From Jekyll Island all over again. Greece, Portugal and Spain et al on the brink. A stock market [the Dow] that wants to die. It appears that the central banks are watching their control of world financial and monetary events slip away... and are in a full panic mode.

From what I can see at this juncture, there are only two possible ways this economic, financial, and monetary situation is going to resolve itself, and they are... a hyper-inflationary depression... or a complete deflationary collapse. Both of which will result in the destruction of most of the world's currencies. But, somewhere along either of those paths, or a combination of the two paths... individually or collectively, the central banks will be forced back into using gold as a convertible currency. When [and notice I didn't say 'if'] that happens, gold will have to be revalued to some fantastically high price. At that moment, the Golden Rule will come into play... He who has the gold, makes the rules!

Then, and only then, will we find out which countries and their respective central banks have gold reserves of any kind... and how much they really have left.

In the interim, things are going to get incredibly ugly. And, without doubt, the world's central banks will resort to anything to prevent 'all of the above' from happening.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

John Embry on gold in January 2010

John Embry is one of my favorite analysts on currencies and gold due to his clear insight on fundamental economic laws. His stellar track record against a wave of naysayers certainly helps boost his credibility. This is a must read.

http://www.gata.org/node/8281

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Ludwig von Mises--why you should know him

The great Austrian School Economist, Ludwig von Mises wrote, "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

In other words, Mises, unlike the followers of economist John Maynard Keynes, is of the opinion that governments (and central banks) should stop trying to interfere with market forces. Government intervention via fiscal and monetary policy cannot "control" markets, and cannot prevent booms or busts--they occur naturally, and hence, should be allowed to run their course. All intervention will do is compound and exacerbate said credit expansions and subsequent busts. In other words, they not only create bubbles--they make them bigger, and when they pop, they create bigger busts.

Obama, as bright and insightful as he is, is naturally bending to human nature--the consensus is to solve this huge private, corporation, and institutional debt crisis by replacing it with much larger government debt. In other words, we are compounding a billion dollar debt problem into a trillion dollar debt problem.

While stimulative short-term (public and private works, for instance), it is detrimental long-term, as our generation and future generations are saddled with huge debts and high taxation. Despite cosmetic rhetoric, we are merely deferring out debts into the future, letting them compound at an alarming rate.

The resulting inflation reduces that debt amount into the future, but inflation also punishes savers and investors. Eventually, investors will demand higher rates of return. The combination of capital flooding the markets, and said capital chasing fewer resources (commodities, crops, oil, basic metals, and precious metals), will also cause interest rates to rise.

Inflation is the furthest worry of policymakers and the general public right now, but it will eventually rear its ugly head.

In the immortal words of the recently mortal Milton Friedman: "Inflation is taxation without legislation."