Showing posts with label central banks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label central banks. Show all posts

Sunday, March 4, 2018

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

BIS official: Central banks cooperate to influence gold price

This removes all doubt that central bankers and their bullion bank agents conspire to suppress the price of gold and manipulate foreign currencies.

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Bridgewater Calculates How Much Time Central Banks Have Left

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-27/bridgewater-calculates-how-much-time-central-banks-have-left
Ok fine, central banks are "running out of road", however at the same time they are terrified to rip (or even peel) the band-aid off. This has put the system in an unstable equilibrium: on one hand, central bankers - as even they admit - need to hand over the growth impulse over to governments, yet on the other hand, they terrified of even the smallest change to the status quo as they know they may undo some 7 years of "wealth effect" creation overnight.

How much longer can this charade continue?

While many would be quick to answer "indefinitely" that is not true, because with every bond, ETF or stock, purchased by central bankers they come to the point where they either monetize the entire lot, or they increasingly impair the functioning of the capital markets (just ask the dozens of marquee hedge funds that have shuttered in recent years).

Luckily, in a recent analysis, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater asked precisely this question, and even better, provided the answer to how much time is left until both the ECB and BOJ hit the limits on their existing programs. 

As the chart below shows, assuming no changes to existing programs, the ECB and the BOJ, the two central banks most actively monetizing debt currently, have 8 and 26 months respectively, if they do no changes to their programs. 

However, if incremental easing is layered on, like expanding the scope of their bond buying programs or purchasing equities even more aggressively, the total rises substantially. The final answer: 68 months, or just above 5 and a half years,  in the case of the ECB, were it to steamroll all political opposition and monetize virtually every possible bond (and 20% of the equity market), and 48 months, or 4 years, in the case of the BOJ.

Friday, July 24, 2015

Central Banks and Our Dysfunctional Gold Markets

https://mises.org/library/central-banks-and-our-dysfunctional-gold-markets
It's because gold is a powerful competitive international currency that, if allowed to function in a free market, will determine the value of other currencies, the level of interest rates, and the value of government bonds. Gold's performance is usually the opposite of the performance of government currencies and bonds. Hence central banks fight gold to defend their currencies and bonds.  

The problem is that central bank tactics in this fight affect more than gold; they affect markets generally and eventually destroy markets generally. This destruction of markets now has a name, a name used even by former members of the Federal Reserve Board. That name is "financial repression."

Monday, June 29, 2015

"Of What Use Is A Gun With No Bullets?", BIS Says Central Banks Defenseless Against Coming Crisis

Most people in the know, know that the BIS is the central bank of central banks, including the Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, etc.  So when they push the panic button, it's time to sit up and notice.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-29/what-use-gun-no-bullets-bis-says-central-banks-defenseless-against-coming-crisis

Thursday, June 4, 2015

WARNING: Western Central Banks Are Now On The Verge Of Losing Control

This daily update by Art Cashin doesn't say much, except for the brief quote by Peter Boockvar.

http://kingworldnews.com/warning-western-central-banks-are-now-on-the-verge-of-losing-control/
I’ve said this before but I’m sorry, I need to say it again. What we are witnessing in global markets is the inherent contradiction writ large that is modern day monetary policy where dangerously ZIRP, NIRP and QE are considered conventional policies. The contradiction is simply this: the desire for higher inflation if fulfilled will result in higher interest rates that central banks are trying so hard and desperately to suppress.

Outside of the short end of the curve, markets will always win for better or worse and that is clearly evident now. The ECB is getting their first taste of the market talking back and in quite the violent way. In the US, the bond market is watching the Fed drag its feet (its never-ending) with wanting to raise interest rates and finally said enough is enough. The US Treasury market is tightening for them. Since mid April, the 5 yr note yield is higher by 40 bps, the 10 yr is up by 55 bps and the 30 yr yield is up by 65 bps. 

The Fed now has two choices, raise rates in June or July and get back some control or don’t and lose it further. Bigger picture, IF the rise in rates continues around the world in coming quarters and it starts to impact global growth, central banks will then reach its next decision, whether to fight the rise with more QE or to just let markets normalize on their own. For US equities, I don’t think they should be so nonchalant with what is going on in bonds as extremely low interest rates have been their best friend over the years.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Central Banks Are Boosting Their Gold Reserves

This refutes earlier reports from mainstream media that Russia was selling its gold to raise reserves.  Quite the opposite:  Russia is accelerating their gold purchases to prop up the rouble.  Eventually, between China and Russia (and Iran), their respective currencies will be backed by gold.  This would destroy the value of fiat currencies from insolvent western economies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/central-banks-hungry-for-gold-bought-enough-for-75-dreamliners