Sunday, January 3, 2021

Crypto Whales Quietly Accumulating Ethereum, Says Analytics Firm Santiment

My Latest 2021 Forecast for Bitcoin

Based on this chart, one forecast for Bitcoin is a price target of $220,000 sometime around August 14, 2021, approximately 240 days after December 17, 2020, when Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high of $20,000.  This presumes an 11X return from the $20,000 breakout, based on previous breakout returns of 38X and 17X, respectively.

Another forecast is based on the halving schedule.  Assuming a 15X return from the $8500 price on the May 11, 2020 halving, a price target of $127,500 will be reached by October 2021, about 17 months after the May 11, 2020 halving.  A 15X return is presumed, as previous post-halvings returns were 96X and 31X in 2013 and 2017, respectively.

With both models, I anticipate a major correction beginning later this year between August and October, with Bitcoin continuing to decline as we enter 2022, before bottoming out late in 2022.  Those mentally unprepared for major drawdowns will experience maximum emotional pain.

There are two strategies to consider:  for traders and non-traders (hodlers).  Traders can try to time markets, identifying peaks and valleys, but that is treacherous territory, given Bitcoin's volatility.  There are also tax implications for trading in and out of positions.

Hodlers on the other hand, never sell, using various dollar cost averaging strategies, of which Buying the Dips is my favorite method of accumulating Bitcoin.  All investors have time preferences, and you must know your own.  True believers in Bitcoin's long-term store of value will migrate toward hodling.

The takeaway is the forecasting business is hazardous enough.  Putting in a timeline along with price targets is even more dangerous.  But Bitcoin's programmable, deterministic mining supply schedule may offer some unique insight not afforded with other asset classes.  The bullish case for Bitcoin also lies in the demand side of the equation.  As institutional money comes rushing in, the case for geometrically higher Bitcoin prices becomes much stronger.

Please see disclaimers in the left side bar.


Thursday, December 31, 2020

Countdown to 2021: Top 10 Mainstream Bitcoin Video's of 2020

This is one of the best videos on Bitcoin for newbies to watch. You don't have to know all the details--you just have to know who's on the bus, and why they're on

M1 and M2 Data Merging

Despite assurances from Fed Chair Powell that the Fed will become more transparent, the central bank is actually becoming more opaque with their monetary policies. They are preparing to gin up the printing press to infinity. We should prepare for this in parallel.

Question this at your peril. Good luck to all of us. #hyperinflation

Minimum Wage vs. Gold Comparison

This is why too much money printing makes most people poorer. The dollar is getting destroyed and wages aren't keeping up.

Sunday, December 27, 2020

Former Fed Chair Burns Memo to President Ford

Governments manipulate markets--especially precious metals, to maintain power.  Conspiracy theory?  Think again.

Saturday, December 5, 2020

Friday, November 27, 2020

Falsifying Stock-to-Flow As a Model of Bitcoin Value

Eigenvalues are not proof-negative that the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model is legit. Translation: the price of Bitcoin will inevitably go higher over time.

Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Crypto will be useful but Bitcoin is hard to understand, says SoftBank CEO

In the Misdirection category, the title of these articles about the Softbank CEO implies that he is not a fan of Bitcoin.  However, I have personally seen first-hand one of Softbank's huge Bitcoin mining farms.  It's not in China, not in Japan, but in good ol' Texas (I cannot reveal the exact location).  These mining farms cost north of $150 million to build.  The data centers are clustered over 100 acres.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Multiple Banks are Bullish on Gold and Silver

A consensus usually makes me nervous, as groupthink can often be wrong.  But investment and commercial banks are seeing what's painfully obvious:  money printing by central banks is on steroids.

Gold price to surge past $3,000 says Bank of America:

Goldman Sachs says gold will surge another 20% and hit $2,300 in the next year, driven by rock-bottom interest rates:

Could Investing in Gold Add a New Dimension to Your Portfolio?

UBS ‘very bullish’ on gold as bank expects bullion price to surge higher:
Silver to Benefit From Global Solar Surge. It’s Time to Buy Again, Goldman Sachs Says.

Biden's 'green stimulus' would send silver soaring to $50: Bank of America:

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Jobs Friday (and Its Effect on Gold and Silver)

 I posted this on September 1, 2017 regarding "jobs Friday."  It's still relevant today, even as gold and silver plummet on the Thursday before Jobs Friday tomorrow.

My letter to clients:

I posted this two days ago on Facebook and LinkedIn, and it's a shared memory from September 1, 2017.

Shorting the precious metals complex worked 80% of the time on Jobs Friday.
"Jobs reports came out today, specifically nonfarm payrolls. Which probably means the manipulators are going to monkey-hammer gold and silver down. And if they don't, that means they've lost control of the physical markets, which will happen at some point. Probably not today tho. The conventional wisdom is if the jobs picture is rosy, that means the economy is healthy which results in a strong dollar. Hence, gold should drop. The real reason is it gives the bullion bank cartel an opportunity to collusively plummet gold by swarming the COMEX exchange with sell orders. If a trade is that predictable, you know the market is rigged."

Today is Thursday, September 3, 2020, and gold and silver are already hammered.  Could the Big Shorts be front-running the normal Jobs Friday bear raid?  Perhaps, so I went long today, and looking to go long more tomorrow if further drops occur.  BTFD.

Again, gold and silver usually get hammered on the first Friday of every month by the Big Shorts who manipulate the futures and spot markets.  It's a collusive group who are being prosecuted by the Department of Justice, and in some cases, under RICO statutes.  The DOJ has declared the JPMorgan metals trading desk a "criminal enterprise" in other words.  Other banks have also been paying fines and "cooperating" with the DOJ, presumably to avoid jail time.  THIS IS NO LONGER CONSPIRACY THEORY, BUT FACT.

These investigations are targeting mid- and low-level traders spoofing markets.  They really don't address the larger issues:  these bullion banks are acting on behalf of the Fed and other central banks to surreptitiously suppress gold and silver prices.  These manipulations are coming from the top of the food chain.  It is also happening in the Bitcoin COMEX futures market, as the former CFTC publicly admitted.  We definitely live in strange (and treacherous) times. 

Remember:  history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.  This plunge in prices from the precious metals complex occurs approximately 80% of the time, so it is not random.  If folks are catching on and front running the move, the trade may lose its effectiveness on Jobs Friday and is now occurring the day before.  In any case, today and tomorrow may be good opportunities to add to your long positions.

Good luck to all!