Climate Wars: IEA Warns Governments To Stockpile Battery Metals

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/climate-wars-iea-warns-governments-stockpile-battery-metals

Metals, Currency Rigging Is Worse Than Libor, Bafin Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-16/metals-currency-rigging-worse-than-libor-bafin-s-koenig-says.html

Key Charts Which Predict A Violent Move Higher In The Metals

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/27_Key_Charts_Which_Predict_A_Violent_Move_Higher_In_The_Metals.html

How Will the Fiscal Cliff Affect Gold, Metals?

The TV hostess asks the analyst where the big gold buyers are coming from: European or US investors?

Those are correct answers, but the TV anchor and analyst truly show their ignorance of the global gold market.  The best answer is the big PHYSICAL (as opposed to paper) gold buyers are in Asia, specifically China, India, and Russia.

When the "experts" are clueless, it's an indication that the masses are even more so.


http://bloom.bg/11b8zIQ

Miners Catching Up To Metals — Huge Run Coming?

http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/miners-catching-up-to-metals-huge-run-coming/

Jurassic Park toilet scene

According to Jesse's Cafe Americain's website,

Metal's breaking out. Timmy's at the wheel, with Jamie and Blythe in the back seat. Ben is the goat.

The Comex is headed for a default unless they can secure a large new supply of silver and increase their inventories.   Or allow the price to climb higher until the market finally clears and existing supply re-enters the market.

Ludwig von Mises--why you should know him

The great Austrian School Economist, Ludwig von Mises wrote, "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

In other words, Mises, unlike the followers of economist John Maynard Keynes, is of the opinion that governments (and central banks) should stop trying to interfere with market forces. Government intervention via fiscal and monetary policy cannot "control" markets, and cannot prevent booms or busts--they occur naturally, and hence, should be allowed to run their course. All intervention will do is compound and exacerbate said credit expansions and subsequent busts. In other words, they not only create bubbles--they make them bigger, and when they pop, they create bigger busts.

Obama, as bright and insightful as he is, is naturally bending to human nature--the consensus is to solve this huge private, corporation, and institutional debt crisis by replacing it with much larger government debt. In other words, we are compounding a billion dollar debt problem into a trillion dollar debt problem.

While stimulative short-term (public and private works, for instance), it is detrimental long-term, as our generation and future generations are saddled with huge debts and high taxation. Despite cosmetic rhetoric, we are merely deferring out debts into the future, letting them compound at an alarming rate.

The resulting inflation reduces that debt amount into the future, but inflation also punishes savers and investors. Eventually, investors will demand higher rates of return. The combination of capital flooding the markets, and said capital chasing fewer resources (commodities, crops, oil, basic metals, and precious metals), will also cause interest rates to rise.

Inflation is the furthest worry of policymakers and the general public right now, but it will eventually rear its ugly head.

In the immortal words of the recently mortal Milton Friedman: "Inflation is taxation without legislation."

What to do going forward (part 2)

While I will agree with you on the metals play, you jumped in a bit early (not a sin), as hedge funds are unloading everything to raise cash--stocks, bonds, commodities, their first-born, etc.You're down 10%, but again, not a sin.

What I do object to is your recommendation of speculative mining stocks. Some of these junior mining companies could run out of cash unless the coming boom occurs soon, which it may or may not. An investor would lose all or much of their investment (cash-poor mining stocks sometimes agree to be acquired, albeit it at a low price). It would suck to make the right call on the direction of metals, and but lose money because the mining company ran out of cash. So yes, on mining companies with cash, no on the speculative plays.

I do like your call on coins and some of the larger gold and silver mining companies--as long as they earn a profit and are well-capitalized (have lots of cash).

As for peak oil, that call proved to be disastrous--or really early, as there has been demand destruction due to a worldwide slowdown. An alternative energy play is natural gas MLP's, which are currently yielding double-digits (all-time highs). Their prices have been battered, but I like the bigger ones who are paying out dividends to unitholders, as they must from positive cash flows. I don't mind waiting for a turnaround if I can earn 20% on my money--most of it tax-deferred. Crude oil is sensitive to the worldwide economy. Natural gas is less sensitive to the transportation and manufacturing industries. However, people need to heat their homes, and cook their food. And more fleet vehicles are being converted to natural gas, as it burns cleaner. But like I said, earning 10-20% is better than earning 1%. When energy prices do recover, these MLP's will appreciate as well.

What to do going forward (part 1)

There's nothing confusing about this: Dave and I just made a ton of money today. Trust me, it's just the beginning. I'm not even referring to the stock market. As I said earlier, the buyers and sellers will continue to fight each other on where the exact bottom will be. Stocks will trade inside a range, albeit it a wide range, due to high volatility. Meanwhile, contrarians like he and I will be adding to our positions geared towards inflation and financial meltdown. Savvy investors will eventually see it, then CNBC viewers, and by the time the mainstream audience catches on, gold will be testing their all-time highs.

When you print money like toilet paper, something has to give. Don't just look at the $USD/gold relationship. Look at the price of gold from a foreign currency perspective. From their standpoint, the price of gold is at an all-time high already, because the $USD is temporarily gaining strength due to the flight to quality, as sovereign funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, and private equity firms face redemptions from investors selling. More banks and financial institutions will go under as a result. Companies will go bankrupt, due to lack of liquidity and lack of access to credit. If people insist on owning shares, the only ones I would trust are Wal-Mart, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Berkshire Hathaway, Altria, ExxonMobil. Focus on dividends, cash flow, cash position, and ability to borrow. Microsoft will be able to tap into the corporate bond market at 2%....which is better than what the US government will be able to borrow at. Think about what I just said: Microsoft will be more credit-worthy than the US government.

In light of all these federal government bailouts, and solvency issues with banks, financial institutions, insurance companies, autos, airlines, etc. has anybody even thought of whether the government itself will be solvent? They continue to print money at a rate of $1 trillion extra a quarter. That devaluates the local currency. Once people wake up to this inflationary scenario (where the US Treasury will have to borrow at 8% or above), one where the $USD deteriorates, gold and silver will skyrocket. Right now, the markets are focused on deflation. That will change--it's only a matter of time. And when you have disinvestment AND inflation, you get stagflation like we experienced in the 70's, only this time, the overshoot will be even more severe.