Comparing history of GLD to potential spot Bitcoin ETF

https://cryptoslate.com/insights/comparing-history-of-gld-to-potential-spot-bitcoin-etf/

Pfizer's History of Fraud, Corruption, and Using Nigerian Children as 'Human Guinea Pigs'

https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/pfizers-history-of-fraud-corruption

"Democratic Institutions?" – 10 Lessons From History That Will Destroy Your Trust In The CIA

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-20/democratic-institutions-10-lessons-history-will-destroy-your-trust-cia

Greyerz – $33,750 Gold And $575 Silver And The Biggest Wealth Destruction In History

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-33750-gold-and-575-silver/

Greatest Moments In Profit Taking History...You Were Warned

https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/01/greatest-moments-in-profit-taking_29.html

• Household net worth (value of all assets held) as a percentage of disposable personal income (all sources of income minus the tax paid on that income).
• Personal savings rate (the amount remaining from disposable personal income, after all expenditures, that is available to be saved in a bank and/or 401k / IRA, etc.).

 
...accelerating significant dives in the personal savings rate have preceded each crash in asset prices.

BETTING AGAINST HISTORY

This guy gets it.  Record-high markets can surge ever higher, in a so-called crack up boom.  A bull market climbs a wall of worry, with prognosticators anticipating a collapse which ultimately occurs later rather than sooner.

The author acknowledges a stock market crash will occur, but it will occur only after the bond market collapses, which is the bigger bubble.  And the collapse will be inflationary in nature, not deflationary, as most pundits predict.  In other words, the smart money will eventually be proven right--but they will also be early and probably lose a lot of money before they will eventually be proven right.

It's difficult to be a contrarian when the majority of people agree with you.

Similar to generals fighting previous wars, investors are fighting yesterday's crises.  NO ONE is expecting inflation to be an issue--deflation is the boogeyman declared by everyone in the financial services industry.  In fact, the global monetary authorities (including the Fed, the Treasury, and other central banks) have stated a "desirable" inflation goal of 2% (the way inflation is calculated is understated, which deems these inflation targets meaningless anyway).

My forecast is that they will reach their inflation goals, and even exceed them, at which point, the Fed will lose control of the long end of the bond curve, resulting in runaway inflation.  It will be hard to put the inflation genie back into the bottle.  The end game is a collapsing bond market and soaring interest rates, as confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar will dissipate.  Be careful what you wish for:  you may get it--and some.

Another truism:  QE to infinity.  Central banks know they must inflate or die.

http://themacrotourist.com//macro/betting-against-history

Rothchilds Buying Gold On "Greatest" Money "Experiment" In "History of the World"

The only implication I disagree with is the implication that the Rothschilds are managing billions of dollars.  I would speculate the family net worth is in the trillions.  Regardless, they are joining the ranks of other billionaires who are guying physical gold, as they diversity away from other paper financial assets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-19/rothchilds-buying-gold-greatest-money-experiment-history-world

James Turk – Is History About To Repeat In The Silver Market? Plus One Of The Most Stunning Charts Of The Last Decade

Markets zig and they zag--they don't move in straight lines.  If one recalls in the book and movie The Big Short, the protagonists made the right bet in shorting (e.g. betting against) the fraudulent subprime mortgage boom in 2006.  However, they initially lost a ton of money when loans were defaulting, which should have generated profits for their short positions.  Instead, because the secondary derivatives (or "shadow") markets were grossly manipulated and illiquid, the bearish short positions against the mortgage-backed securities (CDO's) were tanking initially.

Fortunately for the protagonists, the credit default swaps (a CDS is an insurance contract betting  against the credit debt obligations) regained sanity in 2008 and soared in value when the deluge of mortgage defaults accelerated.  The underlying real estate industry took a nose dive nationwide. The CDS holders profited in the billions, far outweighing their previous losses.  In summary, the speculators (the big shorts) bet correctly, but they were early, before being proven right and profiting handsomely in the end.

One could debate that manipulated markets take time to cleanse themselves before true price discovery mechanisms bring supply and demand dynamics to rational levels.  That's theoretical.  But the pragmatic point is that speculators should have enough liquidity to outlast the transitory cycles when markets move against their positions.  In the aftermath, they will profit from the inevitable outcomes.  Profits come from being right in both direction and timing.

Likewise, for 4-plus years, precious metals have been taking a beating.  However, against a backdrop of 6000, 100, 45, or 15 years, gold and silver have outperformed equities and bonds.  More recently, the two noble metals have outperformed other assets in 2016.

Precious metals provide a counter-balance to traditional financial assets, and tend to outperform when there is distress in markets.  With equities particularly, they move up on an escalator, but plummet down violently in an elevator.  For example, the tech-heavy NASDAQ index lost 80% between its 2000 peak before bottoming out in 2003.  The S&P 500 lost approximately half its value between the 2007 peak and the 2009 bottom, when Fed Chairman Bernanke stepped in with the bank bailouts in 2008 and QE in 2009. 

Accumulators accumulating the metals on the way down have brought their average cost down as well.  And now that the precious metals asset class has rebounded, the paper profits have risen.

But that's not the point of accumulating physical precious metals: to garner "profits".  They are stores of value, not trade-able securities.  They are true buy-and-hold portfolio hedges, protecting holders against inflation--and deflation, when all other assets have uncertainty attached to them.


Yes, I mention deflation because while cash is king understandably in deflationary times, precious metals are also counter-intuitively valuable due to their durability, divisibility, portability, acceptability, and uniformity.  For these reasons, cash is a viable currency.  The fact that until now, the USDollar is also the global reserve currency creates demand for it, rendering it even more valuable.

But the winds of geopolitical change are upon us, as the dollar's perch as the reserve currency becomes increasingly perilous.  Precious metals outshine fiat currency as they are also solid stores of value, because they are limited in supply, and therefore cannot be debased by reckless currency creation from central bankers.

And be careful with unallocated gold and silver ETF's as they are merely paper promises to deliver precious metals.  They are not sufficiently backed by physical inventory.

Having said that, patience is a virtue, and the time for gold and silver to shine is upon us and will only get brighter going forward.  Continue accumulating physical precious metals.  Better yet, buy the price dips when they occur.

http://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-will-history-repeat-in-the-silver-market/

DANGER: The World Is Now On The Verge Of The Largest Destruction Of Wealth In History

http://kingworldnews.com/danger-the-world-is-now-on-the-verge-of-the-largest-destruction-of-wealth-in-history/

ALERT: Banks Had Largest Gold Short Positions In History Heading Into Brexit As “Leave” Vote Sent Gold Skyrocketing

http://kingworldnews.com/banks-had-highest-gold-short-positions-in-history/

FATCA: the dumbest law in history just went to the next level

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/fatca-the-dumbest-law-in-history-just-went-to-the-next-level-17532/

Ray Dalio: “If You Don’t Own Gold, You Know Neither History Nor Economics” – The Reason For Our Unbroken Confidence In Gold

http://kingworldnews.com/the-reason-for-our-unbroken-confidence-in-gold/

Japanese Investors Lose Faith In Draghi - Dump The Most Foreign Bonds In History

Greece matters after all.  Contagion is a bitch.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/japanese-investors-lose-faith-draghi-dump-most-foreign-bonds-history

Preparedness Critics Are History’s Cannon Fodder

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2638-preparedness-critics-are-historys-cannon-fodder

It is perhaps not coincidental that the people most in love with the state are often the first ones to be annihilated by it.  Avid lower echelon and middlemen agents of tyranny are in many cases exterminated by the very system they helped to dominance. If they do not meet their demise at the hands of the establishment, then they invariably meet their demise at the hands of those fighting against the establishment.

Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-29/biggest-inventory-build-history-prevents-total-collapse-us-economy

In other words, if US inventories, already at record high levels, and with the inventory to sales rising to great financial crisis levels, had not grown by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

Our take:
The Fed continues to jawbone about "normalizing interest rates", i.e. raising interest rates to normal levels (historically 5-6%), from current near-zero levels.

FAT CHANCE is my retort.  There is no way in Hades Janet Yellen will raise rates for the following reasons:
1) the economy is weakening, effectively into another recession, irrespective of whether the technical definition of a recession is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters.  One could argue the US has been in a recession since 2008, even if it officially ended in June, 2009.

In any case, central banks don't raise interest rates when an economy sinks into recession because it further stagnates economic output.  At least if they don't wish for the pitchforks to come out, and if congress wants to get re-elected.  For those who argue the Fed is independent, you need to wake up.

2) Debt levels, whether national government. state, local, and household levels, have never been higher.  Imagine interest rates on mortgages, student, auto, student, credit card debt rising.  Servicing that debt becomes more problematic.  Austerity measures kick in, households hunker down, and the economy would further sink.

Of course, the Fed would probably monetize more debt, plunging us further into debt.

In fact, as Austrian school of economists have purported, Keynesian economists will always choose the debt monetization route in a pinch, solving nothing and merely extending the debt rabbit hole.

Which leads to my next forecast:  the Fed will re-institute QE in a reversal of policy stance of tapering.  As the saying goes:  QE to infinity!

Few are pointing to more QE, but history shows bankrupt governments and central planners always choose MOAR DEBT, as long as they are in power.  Spend today, worry about tomorrow later.

3) With a weakening economy, and a soaring dollar (at least relative to other fiat foreign currencies), US exports are getting clobbered (due to US exports being more expensive in other weaker foreign currencies).  This will kick in beggar-thy-neighbor currency devaluation wars, as Japan's Abe is committing financial hara-kiri by destroying the yen, and the EU is turning on the Euro QE spigot.  Hence, the Fed will debase the dollar in a misguided attempt to make exports more competitive.  The upshot is a sovereign central bank cannot weaken a currency by raising rates.  Weakening a currency requires more printing and lowering rates.

The take away is more volatility, more money printing, more spending, more geopolitical strife, and more social unrest domestically.

How does that affect holders of gold and silver?  With real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) interest rates negative, keep accumulating physical precious metals.

Despite Fed rhetoric of raising rates either in June or October, the bond yield curve is handicapping a 2016 timeframe.  I'm in the camp the Fed will NEVER be able to raise rates intentionally, because it would further stagnate the economy.

But I am acknowledging that the bond vigilantes will at some point emerge and force market rates higher as the participants realize the US government is insolvent and a high credit risk.  Its IOU's will never be repaid, and we will have our own Greek default moment.  Obviously, this points to the US Treasury bubble bursting, bringing down everything with it, including a stock market bubble.  Bond market collapse = soaring bond yields (i.e. interest rates) = equities collapse.

Everything collapses in a liquidity bidless meltdown, except of course, gold and silver, the only sound money which has held its value for 6000 years.

The overarching question becomes when this will happen.  Only God knows.  Betting against the stock market is a foolish endeavor, as equities could melt up in a world of competitive currency devaluations.  In other words, investing in companies can be a very good hedge against currency debasement.  The problem is it works well when it works well--until it stops working when hyperinflation outstrips rising markets.  Kinda like leveraging up works extremely well in a rising real estate market, but it is disastrous when the music stops (see 2008 financial crisis).

Meanwhile, happy stacking!

Is The Gold Price About To Repeat One Of Its Greatest Upside Moves In History

http://kingworldnews.com/gold-price-repeat-one-greatest-upside-moves-history/

With The World On The Edge Of Chaos, Gold & Silver Now At Most Oversold Levels In History

http://kingworldnews.com/gold-silver-now-oversold-levels-history/

Debunking Keynesian “History”: The Gold Standard Had Nothing To Do With Panics And Busts

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/debunking-keynesian-history-the-gold-standard-had-nothing-to-do-with-panics-and-busts/

This was the most valuable company in history (Worth 10 times as much as Apple)

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/when-adjusted-for-inflation-its-highest-market-capitalization-would-be-worth-over-7-trillion-today-15654/

Gold, Bonds, & "Maybe History Has Stopped"

Being right--but early, requires patience.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/gold-bonds-maybe-history-has-stopped