NIALL FERGUSON: This Is The Study That Shows Why The US Economy Is Doomed

http://www.businessinsider.com/study-company-us-2012-4

Niall Ferguson On Whether The Financial Crisis Will Lead To America's Decline And A Glimpse Of The "Post-Pax Americana" Dark Ages

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/niall-ferguson-whether-financial-crisis-will-lead-americas-decline-and-glimpse-post-pax-amer

"Complex systems look like they are in equilibrium, but they are not: they are constantly adapting, highly decentralized, interdependent systems and this process of adaptation can continue for quite a long time. And you think to yourself when you look at it, that's in a wonderful equilibrium. That's how we think about the economy. That is how economists teach economics. They talk about it in terms of equilibrium. The bad news is that in fact we inhabit a complex system that has virtually nothing to do with the neoclassical model that you are taught in Econ 101. And that's why the economists failed to predict the financial crisis... For me American power if you generalize beyond the realm of finance through the geopolitical system is a perfect example of a highly complex system which looks like it is in equilibrium but like all the great empires of the past is quite close to the edge of chaos. And our nightmare scenario should be that something happens to us like happened to the Soviet Union... It suddenly just falls apart. And I think the trigger, the catalyst if you want to switch to chaos theory the butterfly in the tropical rainforest that flaps its wings and posits the distant thunderstorm is going to be the credibility of fiscal policy. That just seems to me like the obvious place where things can turn nasty, and they turn nasty with amazing speed."

Keynesian policies are dooming the world economy

...and causing asset bubbles in emerging countries and commodity markets.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qa3BiujaI3M&feature=player_embedded

Krugman vs. Ferguson

Princeton's Krugman has a Nobel Laureate. Harvard's Ferguson is an economic historian. Guess who wins this debate on fiscal stimulus?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-13/krugman-clashes-with-niall-ferguson-over-u-s-fiscal-stimulus-second-round.html

Niall Ferguson again

I've posted about Niall Ferguson, Harvard Professor and historian, several times and this is a good interview on US fiscal policies, sovereign debt crisis, financial, political, and tax reform.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03CB8pVJkI8&feature=player_embedded




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmOSaAYb4Qk&feature=player_embedded

“Fiscal tightening is baked in the cake. Tax increases are coming and coming soon… The US has a kind of stay of execution while the European crisis unfolds, but at some point the nasty fiscal arithmetic will get everyone, including the U.S… Treasuries are a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941. It’s safe until it’s not safe anymore.”

Niall Ferguson on sovereign debt (repeat)

This is a repeat blog from last month, but I'd like to highlight one paragraph.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f90bca10-1679-11df-bf44-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

Yet even a casual look at the fiscal position of the federal government (not to mention the states) makes a nonsense of the phrase “safe haven”. US government debt is a safe haven the way Pearl Harbor was a safe haven in 1941.

The Great Repression

Wow, I agree with a Harvard economist, as he bashes Keynesian economics.

http://www.niallferguson.com/site/FERG/Templates/ArticleItem.aspx?pageid=203