BETTING AGAINST HISTORY

This guy gets it.  Record-high markets can surge ever higher, in a so-called crack up boom.  A bull market climbs a wall of worry, with prognosticators anticipating a collapse which ultimately occurs later rather than sooner.

The author acknowledges a stock market crash will occur, but it will occur only after the bond market collapses, which is the bigger bubble.  And the collapse will be inflationary in nature, not deflationary, as most pundits predict.  In other words, the smart money will eventually be proven right--but they will also be early and probably lose a lot of money before they will eventually be proven right.

It's difficult to be a contrarian when the majority of people agree with you.

Similar to generals fighting previous wars, investors are fighting yesterday's crises.  NO ONE is expecting inflation to be an issue--deflation is the boogeyman declared by everyone in the financial services industry.  In fact, the global monetary authorities (including the Fed, the Treasury, and other central banks) have stated a "desirable" inflation goal of 2% (the way inflation is calculated is understated, which deems these inflation targets meaningless anyway).

My forecast is that they will reach their inflation goals, and even exceed them, at which point, the Fed will lose control of the long end of the bond curve, resulting in runaway inflation.  It will be hard to put the inflation genie back into the bottle.  The end game is a collapsing bond market and soaring interest rates, as confidence in the purchasing power of the dollar will dissipate.  Be careful what you wish for:  you may get it--and some.

Another truism:  QE to infinity.  Central banks know they must inflate or die.

http://themacrotourist.com//macro/betting-against-history