Friday, July 9, 2010

Do bearish sentiment indicators signal a bottom?

http://blogs.forbes.com/investor/2010/07/08/bearish-sentiment-surges/

The last time bearish sentiment was higher was March 5, 2009. This coincided with the bottom of the last bear market. However, bearish sentiment hit 57.1% on November 20, 2008 and stocks continued to fall after that date.

Though the AAII Sentiment Indicator can be viewed as a contrarian signal, I would caution against relying on any one indicator as a sign that the market is at a turning point.

A better method for determining market bottoms would be to use a combination of indicators. Though the sentiment numbers are insightful, they should be viewed as only one part of a broader market analysis.

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