Lorcaserin on MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38248250/ns/health-diet_and_nutrition/

The smart money (early adopters, hedge funds) was in on ARNA below $3. Now that MSNBC is reporting on Lorcaserin, the big money (mutual funds, pension funds) will roll in while it crosses $5 (institutional buying threshold).

The learned crowd (retail investors who watch the news) will buy in at $25 after it's on NBC, probably after FDA approval. The masses will pile in at $50 when it's on Oprah.

Retail investors include the Hollywood socialite scene after FDA approval. There will be a buzz among celebrities, media reps, talent agents; the whole Hollywood ecosystem, with celebrity MD's getting supply to their top clients.

Just before Oprah validation, the gossip columnists will get a hold of the testimonials, and within a couple weeks, the housewife in Kansas will be demanding it from her family doctor.

That's how the media works when they grab a hold of something with traction.

Of course, this is contingent on FDA approval. The medical community will have legitimate concerns about off-labels and black markets (witness the shenanigans associated with HIV cocktails among body builders, for instance), but the safety profile for Lorcaserin is a HUGE advantage. Legitimate drugs can be misused and abused, so the studies ARNA did on addiction are also a positive. Just my opinion.

See disclaimers on the side bar. Any mention of direction and price targets is pure speculation and not a specific recommendation or prediction.

Disclosure: long ARNA shares, and short ARNA put options.