Friday, April 2, 2010

Pew Research poll

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/27/economy-polls-investing-opinions-columnists-karlyn-bowman.html?boxes=Homepagelighttop
Twenty percent told Fox News/Opinion Dynamics pollsters they had taken money out of the market because of their concerns about the economy, 18% stocked up on food, bottled water or other staples, 11% bought a gun and 6% purchased gold.

Does 6% participation sound like a bubble is forming? When I hear cab drivers and bartenders giving investment advice on a particular sector, that's when I will be selling said sector. Until then, enjoy life.

I recall a bartender in Portland, OR in 1999 bragging about how much he was making on shares of Internet Capital Group, a business-to-business internet play. It essentially started a grinding path to zero a few months later (see chart). Everybody and his brother were endorsing flipping homes with easy credit in the mid-2000's. Oops.

By the way, in no way am I denigrating the cab driving or bartending professions--and they are respectable professions which deliver on expectations (unlike some other professions). I've had some fascinating conversations with them. But I will usually take any investment advice with a grain of salt. In fact, the only advice I will dispense is perform your own due diligence. Don't mistake education level and credentials as criteria for wisdom. Don't be intimidated by acronyms. If you don't like the answers to your questions, move along. Because a lot of "experts" and "pundits" got it all wrong...even bartenders.

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