Friday, April 30, 2010

The BIS on sovereign debt

http://www.fgmr.com/gold-needed-now-more-than-ever.html

“Since the start of the financial crisis, industrial country public debt levels have increased dramatically. And they are set to continue rising for the foreseeable future.”

“First, fiscal problems confronting industrial economies are bigger than suggested by official debt figures…As frightening as it is to consider public debt increasing to more than 100% of GDP, an even greater danger arises from a rapidly ageing population. The related unfunded liabilities are large and growing...In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the path of future output is likely to be permanently below where we thought it would be just several years ago. As a result, government revenues will be lower and expenditures higher, making consolidation even more difficult…

Second, large public debts have significant financial and real consequences. The recent sharp rise in risk premia on long-term bonds issued by several industrial countries suggests that markets no longer consider sovereign debt low-risk…

Third, we note the risk that persistently high levels of public debt will drive down capital accumulation, productivity growth and long-term potential growth…

Finally, looming long-term fiscal imbalances pose significant risk to the prospects for future monetary stability...unstable debt dynamics could lead to higher inflation: direct debt monetisation, and the temptation to reduce the real value of government debt through higher inflation.”

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the highest authority on international finance. Which is why as a contrarian, I was shocked they are firing the same warning shots on sovereign debt that I've been ranting on for years. Perhaps the debt problems have become so severe and apparent that even the blind can see what faces us.

1 comment:

  1. Good stuff! Found your blog while searching for info on Kreditanstalt (is it the spring of 1931 all over again?). Keep up the good work!

    Adam
    http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete