Gary Gensler on CFTC reform

With all due respect to Gary Gensler for being a bright, intelligent, and nice man, he's speaking out of both sides of this mouth. He seems like an ethical, reasonable person, but let's read between the lines. He's worked on Wall Street for 18 years with Goldman Sachs, an investment firm (and now commercial holding bank) with some of the smartest traders and arbitrageurs on the Street. They can influence, if not manipulate markets.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-06/u-s-should-regulate-dealers-cftc-s-gensler-says-update2-.html

His rhetoric of enforcing concentrated position limits in the energy pits (and commodities markets, in general) is shallow, because manipulation of markets with outsized positions is exactly how the big commercial banks profit. The gold and silver COMEX exchange is home to some of the most grotesque short positions in a price suppression scheme obvious to everyone except the blind or captured. In other words, I'll believe the enforcement of CFTC position limits when I see it. Until then, see my disclosure.

Disclosure: long gold and silver mining shares.

PIMCO predicts UK bonds downgrade in 2010

Not that it took a genius, but PIMCO's Scott Mather predicts United Kingdom gilts (sovereign debt) will be downgraded in 2010. This will inevitably raise the cost of borrowing 100 basis points (1%) for England, further exacerbating their huge debt problems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimco-sees-uk-rating-downgrade-probability-80-gilts-higher-100-bps

With downgrades in Iceland, Ecuador, Hungary, Dubai, Greece, Spain and Ireland, it's likely the UK will be joining that unpleasant party. In fact, many countries in Europe will share that fate, including EU member countries, putting pressure on the Euro.

China's insatiable appetite for gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_08/vronsky122909.html

Redemption suspension

The words "suspend redemptions" evoked panic and fear in hedge fund investors in 2008 after Lehman Brothers collapsed. Insolvent hedge funds had to delay investor demands for redemptions because they lacked access to liquidity during the financial crisis. A credit freeze ensued, and no one trusted their counterparties who were equally insolvent.

Fine, hedge fund investors are allegedly savvy and required to understand the outsized risks and rewards of investment in hedge funds. An accredited investor needs to have a minimum income of $200,000 and a minimum net worth of $1 million, but most have income and net worth levels much higher than the minimum thresholds. They understand "high risk/high reward"--at least they're supposed to.

But the latest financial reform being pushed by the Obama financial team "to protect consumers" includes the following language: "suspend redemptions to allow for the orderly liquidation of fund assets." This clause is in direct conflict with Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) Rule 2a-7, which provides minimal risk, no volatility, and redeemability for money market funds. In other words, when the average Joe parks his money in a money market account, he expects miniscule interest earned, in return for the safety and liquidity of funds being instantaneously accessible via a computer keystroke or a visit to the bank teller.

What this "financial reform" clause does is allow financial institutions to NOT guarantee your request for cash withdrawal if financial markets are collapsing. In other words, how "safe" is your cash if you can't even access it in times of financial distress--or when there's a run on banks?

This is the same SEC which is chartered to protect investors from unscrupulous swindlers and regulate free, orderly markets. Given their dismal track record of protecting investors from the likes of Ponzi schemers Bernie Madoff and Allen Stanford, it should come as no surprise that savers and investors will become incredibly vulnerable should the next financial iceberg hit again.

Paul Tudor Jones

For those unfamiliar with Paul Tudor Jones, and this trading legend's track record, here is his wikipedia entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Tudor_Jones

And here is a recent quote in an October 15, 2009 letter to his investors:

“I have never been a gold bug. It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time.”

One must ask oneself: are these the words of a lunatic?

Deflation or inflation?

With much of the focus in the commodities sector on crude oil and the precious metals gold and silver, what's been somewhat lost among the mainstream media and audience is the surge in the "red" metal, copper. Since copper is used in many industrial, housing, and information technology industries, it's been dubbed the bellweather for economic activity and inflation.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

The deflationists correctly claim economic activity is dormant in the US and other developed countries, but they are not accounting for the unintended consequences of the carry trade, where Fed easy monetary and interest rate policies are causing asset bubbles and booming economic activity in emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil. In essence, the hot money is borrowing at 0% interest rates in the USDollar, and investing in commodities and equities in foreign currencies, hence driving asset values higher.

Deflationists also point to official consumer price index (CPI) numbers--benignly low at 0.1% in November, 2009, as further proof that inflation is not an imminent threat.

To which I say "hogwash", as the increase in copper and commodities prices overall reflect inflationary pressures. Banking lending has not returned to nominal levels and wage labor prices have not increased due to a loose employment market; these two scenarios should be keeping a lid on prices. But commodities prices continue to rise despite an absence of these two inflationary factors. When and if the two components do return, inflation could potentially soar due to the exploding monetary base and resultant increased money supply.

While I expect asset values in US housing and equities in certain sectors to continue to be under pressure, the Fed's easy money policies will continue to debase the USDollar, deteriorating the purchasing power of consumers.

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital

David Einhorn, head of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, gives us his summary on currencies and gold. Early in 2009, he loaded up on the gold ETF GLD. Sensing a shortage of physical gold, he later traded in his shares of GLD for physical gold bullion. Rumors were he allegedly caused a run on gold futures contracts, as short sellers had difficulty filling orders for delivery of the gold bullion he purchased.

Four years ago I spoke at this conference and said that I favored my Grandma Cookie’s investment style of investing in stocks like Nike, IBM, McDonald’s and Walgreens over my Grandpa Ben’s style of buying gold bullion and gold stocks. He feared the economic ruin of our country through a paper money and deficit-driven hyperinflation. I explained how Grandma Cookie had been right for the last thirty years and would probably be right for the next thirty as well. I subscribed to Warren Buffett’s old criticism that gold just sits there with no yield and viewed gold’s long-term value as difficult to assess. However, the recent crisis has changed my view.

The question can be flipped: how does one know what the dollar is worth given that dollars can be created out of thin air or dropped from helicopters? Just because something hasn’t happened, doesn’t mean it won’t. Yes, we should continue to buy stocks in great companies, but there is room for Grandpa Ben’s view as well. I have seen many people debate whether gold is a bet on inflation or deflation. As I see it, it is neither. Gold does well when monetary and fiscal policies are poor and does poorly when they appear sensible. Gold did very well during the Great Depression when FDR debased the currency. It did well again in the money-printing 1970s, but collapsed in response to Paul Volcker’s austerity. It ultimately made a bottom around 2001 when the excitement about our future budget surpluses peaked.

Prospectively, gold should do fine unless our leaders implement much greater fiscal and monetary restraint than appears likely. Of course, gold should do very well if there is a sovereign debt default or currency crisis.

A few weeks ago, the Office of Inspector General called out the Treasury Department for misrepresenting the position of the banks last fall. The Treasury’s response was an unapologetic expression that amounted to saying that at that point “doing whatever it takes” meant pulling a Colonel Jessup: “YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH!” At least we know what we are dealing with. When I watch Chairman Bernanke, Secretary Geithner and Mr. Summers on TV, read speeches written by the Fed governors, observe the “stimulus” black hole, and think about our short-termism and lack of fiscal discipline and political will, my instinct is to want to short the dollar. But then I look at the other major currencies. The Euro, the Yen, and the British Pound might be worse. So, I conclude that picking one of these currencies is like choosing my favorite dental procedure. And I decide holding gold is better than holding cash, especially now, where both earn no yield.

News alert: former IMF economist shoots old boss

That is not a misprint. It is not a gang-related shooting incident. It involves two IMF economists.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-04/former-imf-economist-is-sought-in-shooting-of-former-coworker.html

I wish I could make this stuff up.

Robert Rubin on the economy

Wow, Robert Rubin finally speaks, after stepping down from his perch at Citigroup. According to a few independent thinkers, Rubin was one of the main instigators in the cause of the financial and economic crises we find ourselves in. The former Treasury Secretary formerly headed up Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, encouraging banks to leverage up their balance sheets to increase dubious earnings via the use of derivatives, which ended up being toxic assets. We all know how that drunken party turned out.

His progeny in the ensuing bank bailouts include former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson (also, formerly of Goldman Sachs), top Obama financial advisor Lawrence Summers, and current Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, among other well-placed government bureaucrats and bankers.

The editorial actually gives fair warning to the approaching storm, even if it lacks any mea culpa for past misdeeds. I guess omission is a form of honesty.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/225623/page/1

First, there must be sound fiscal and monetary policies. The United States faces projected 10-year federal budget deficits that seriously threaten its bond market, exchange rate, economy, and the economic future of every American worker and family. Those risks are exacerbated by the context of those deficits: a low household-savings rate, even after recent increases; large funding requirements for federal debt maturities every year; heavy overweighting of dollar-denominated assets in foreign portfolios; worsened fiscal prospects in the decades after the current 10-year budget period; and competing claims for capital to fund deficits in other countries.

The conventional concern here is that private investment will be crowded out, which would result in a reduction of productivity, competitiveness, and growth. In addition, the very early 1990s showed that unsound fiscal conditions can have a symbolic effect that broadly undermines business and consumer confidence. But finally, and far more dangerously, our bond and currency markets could react with severe distress to fears about imbalances in the supply and demand for capital in the years ahead or about the possibilities of inflation. Those effects have been averted so far by a number of factors: large inflows of capital from abroad into Treasury securities; concerns about other major currencies; the low level of private demand for capital; and the psychological state of the market. But this cannot continue indefinitely, and change can occur with great force—and unpredictable timing.

Read Matt Taibbi's scathing article on Obama's big sellout and the pandering to big Wall Street bankers--at the expense and hoodwinking of tax payers. Robert Rubin is a central figure in the web of lies, deception, and pilfering.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/31234647/obamas_big_sellout

Bubble in Treasury bond market?

Although the TBT exchange-traded fund (ETF) is not an efficient proxy for rising long-dated US Treasury bond yields, it is one of few investment vehicles available to retail investors.

http://moneynews.com/Headline/Experts-GetOut-Bonds-Bubble/2009/12/31/id/345127

TBT is a leveraged bet against the long Treasury ETF iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT). It attempts to double the inverse of the returns of TLT, using options and futures contracts. Theoretically, if TLT rises 1%, TBT should decline 2%. Likewise, if TLT declines 1%, TBT should rise 2%. In essence, if 20+ Year Treasury Bond yields rise by a certain amount, the price of TBT should rise twice that amount.

The reason why TBT underperforms its intended goal of achieving these returns is due to performance drag from the derivative contracts of the UltraShort fund being rebalanced every day. This causes isotopic decay, so the ETF never reaches previous highs--even if the directional bet is correct.

The best way to profit from rising yields in long-dated US Treasury bonds it to short sell them in the futures market, which is unfeasible for most retail investors, due to volatility risk and excessive leverage.

In summary, the TBT ETF trade will be profitable short- and mid-term if long-dated bond yields increase, but it won't be as profitable as expected long-term. Of course, the best way to protect yourself from rising interest rates is to lock in historically low interest rates with a fixed-rate mortgage.

Disclosure: long TBT shares.

FDIC gearing up for more bank closures

The FDIC is anticipating more bank failures, increasing their budget to $4 trillion and hiring more staffers.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-nearly-doubles-budget-for-failed-banks-2009-12-15

Ben Bernanke on the housing bubble

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-04/bernanke-says-regulation-came-too-late-to-curb-housing-bubble.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said low central bank interest rates didn’t cause the housing bubble of the past decade and that better regulation would have been more effective in curbing the boom.

Stunning. This is the same guy who totally missed the bursting housing bubble. And now he's absolving himself of any blame.

Bank bailout fatigue

Tired of bank bailouts? The House has a 1,279 page financial reform bill which includes a clause allocating $4 trillion more for emergency funding in case banks collapse.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner also raised an additional $400 billion to backstop Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, without Congressional appproval, conveniently implemented on Christmas Eve.

And with the federal budget deficit running out of control, and no investors willing to fund those deficits (except the Fed itself), they are now coming up with a new instrument in addition to overnight bank reserves, dubbed benignly as "term deposit facility." In essence, they are creating Federal Reserve CD's for member banks.

Many rightfully believe creating money out of thin air is inflationary, due to the printing of more USDollars. Another more dire scenario is hyperinflation, due to the more expansive creation of electronic currency via a computer keystroke.

In other words, the US Treasury can only print so many USDollars, as there are not enough trees. But it can certainly create more virtual currency through the miracle of computer technology. Turbo Tax Timmy's forefinger is developing carpal tunnel syndrome from all the keystrokes. Either way, the paper currency in your wallet is being devalued--on a much bigger scale. Protect yourself accordingly.

Borrow and print

Short term noise often tends to obscure the longer term realities and the fact is that the US is now firmly on the path to financial decline unless an abrupt, about face occurs in regards to our economic and fiscal policies. I have said it before and will say it again; if all that was necessary to produce lasting prosperity was to ramp up the printing presses and borrow like a banshee, nations of the past would have figured it out long before we did and would have successfully implemented it. That those nations that have attempted to do so are now in the ashbin of history or learned enough to avoid doing so again, is proof enough that it is a foolish, irresponsible and destructive path to take.

- Dan Norcini, December 29, 2009

Warren Buffett on inflation

This author needs no introduction, and his concerns need no preamble.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&ref=opinion&adxnnlx=1250679809-vkyiY4/BtTu6cDDesIMy4w

Legislators will correctly perceive that either raising taxes or cutting expenditures will threaten their re-election. To avoid this fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation, which never require a recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

As much as I agree with Mr. Buffett on the abovementioned scenario, I do disagree with this statement:

Because of this gigantic deficit, our country’s “net debt” (that is, the amount held publicly) is mushrooming. During this fiscal year, it will increase more than one percentage point per month, climbing to about 56 percent of G.D.P. from 41 percent. Admittedly, other countries, like Japan and Italy, have far higher ratios and no one can know the precise level of net debt to G.D.P. at which the United States will lose its reputation for financial integrity. But a few more years like this one and we will find out.

Actually, studies have been performed on the thresholds of deficits and debts as precursors to inflation and currency crises. See my previous blog on this topic.

http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2009/10/tipping-point-for-hyperinflation.html

Economist Peter Bernholz is an expert on the subject of national hyperinflations. He has studied all the major cases of hyperinflation since 1980. His conclusion: The tipping point occurs when a government’s deficit exceeds 40% of its expenditures.

Guess what? The U.S. will hit the 40% mark in 2009.

Mr. Buffett may be wrong on the existence of researched hyperinflation data, but he is in agreement that the US is in danger of entering a period of uncontrolled deficit spending and eventual banana republic-style inflation.

The Socialism experiment

We are about to find out how socialism works.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_dec212009.html

John Williams of shadowstats.com

John Williams, founder of the website shadowstats.com, is infamous for publishing true unemployment and underemployment numbers. He is now oft-quoted and cited even among government economists, so his statistics have legitimacy behind them. He is not viewed as a wild-eyed radical extremist, which make his forecasts extremely discomfiting, if not alarming.

http://www.fairfieldweekly.com/article.cfm?aid=16014

2009 Quarter 3 GDP numbers

Officially reported as 3.5%, 2009 Quarter 3 GDP numbers were then revised to 2.8% several weeks later, as our national's gross domestic product did not grow as fast as originally measured. Several weeks later, economic growth was revised downward again to 2.2%, much of the gains coming from inventory replenishment and the one-time Cash-for-Clunkers auto rebate program.

With most recoveries from deep recessions, GDP growth on the other side of the valley approaches a positive 6 to 8%. It will be interesting to see what the current quarter economic growth numbers will be.

John Embry on gold

John Embry of Sprott Asset Management on the supply/demand dynamics of gold:

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2009/12_24_2009%20Gold%20bull%20has%20many%20years,%20thousands%20of%20dollars%20to%20go.pdf

Christmas in Vegas

After a few days of intermingling with folks in Las Vegas, I've come to the conclusion most Americans are aware of our nation's problems, but they refuse to think much about it, hoping our economy will somehow transform itself and recover. Call it the Santa Claus effect. Well, I hate to be the "Scrooge", but this editorial unfortunately sums up the state of our country accurately and honestly.

http://realityarbiter.com/2009/12/american-purgatory/

Ben Bernanke

By Olivier Garret, CEO, Casey Research

Ben Bernanke is a dubious choice to be named “Person of the Year” by Time magazine. While Time’s Managing Editor Richard Stengel credits him with recognizing early and reacting appropriately to the ongoing financial crisis, in reality, he was wrong time and again with both his predictions and his remedies. Just remember these gems:

* On July 1, 2005, Bernanke stated without hesitation that we were not experiencing a housing bubble: “I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit.”

* November 2005, on derivatives: “With respect to their safety, derivatives, for the most part, are traded among very sophisticated financial institutions and individuals who have considerable incentive to understand them and to use them properly.” And “the Federal Reserve’s responsibility is to make sure that the institutions it regulates have good systems and good procedures for ensuring that their derivatives portfolios are well managed and do not create excessive risk in their institutions.”

* February 15, 2006: “Housing markets are cooling a bit. Our expectation is that the decline in activity or the slowing in activity will be moderate, that house prices will probably continue to rise.”

* February 2008: “I expect there will be some failures of smaller banks” (Bear Stearns collapsed a couple of weeks later).

* But then again, I guess in regards to his nomination we are talking about achievements in 2009. That was the year Bernanke said, "Currently, we don’t think [the unemployment rate] will get to 10 percent."

This is the same chairman of the Federal Reserve who told us that Fannie and Freddie were “adequately capitalized” and “in no danger of failing.”

Unfortunately, he has not just been wrong about housing, unemployment, banking, and derivatives – his policies have directly contributed to all of the problems we now face.

High unemployment and the weak dollar threaten to further undermine our economy, yet his policy is to just keep borrowing. The massive debt his policies have foisted on the American taxpayer is weakening the U.S.’s position as global economic leader and hurting already tenuous relations with foreign governments. Bernanke has supported the policies of Greenspan and our current and previous administrations – the very policies that got us into this mess. He has supported the leveraging of the American economy to rescue companies long past saving and the borrowing of billions from foreign governments to line the pockets of corrupt investment bankers.

I could recommend a few alternative names for runner-up, if Time’s criteria are really as dubious as they appear:

* Lloyd Blankfein from Goldman Sachs for robbing taxpayers legally

* Rick Wagoner of GM for taking the world’s largest car maker to bankruptcy in a quarter-century

* Tim Geithner for ensuring that all of our bankers prospered during the worst financial crisis since the ‘30s

* Tiger Woods for providing the nation with great dinner conversations and helping to spur tabloid sales.

Bernanke is insistent on using inflation to make our personal debts seem small, all the while setting the country up for a much larger disaster long term. Bernanke is borrowing from Peter to pay Paul… and robbing taxpayers to pay Peter.

As you may have noticed, the government will not save you from the reverberations of a declining U.S. economy. You’ll have to take matters into your own hands.

Jim Rogers

Legendary billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers gives his summary on asset classes in a CNBC interview. It is instructive to watch the whole video to the end.



Rogers is especially critical of Fed Chairman Bernanke, US Treasury Secretary Geithner, and President Obama for printing too many USDollars, and castigates central banks worldwide for turning on the printing presses.

The only disagreement I have is on owning certain foreign currencies. He suggested the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and Canadian Dollar. The Swiss Franc has traditionally been a stable currency due to their conservative monetary policies, but even Swiss banks have veered away from financial discipline, making bad real estate loans to the Baltic States and eastern Europe. Japan is in worse fiscal shape than the US, as their national debt has grown to monstrous levels relative to gross domestic product. On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar is a safe bet, as they are a resource-rich country which will benefit from the appreciation of hard assets (precious metals, rare earth metals, energy). The Brazilian real, Australian Dollar, and Norwegian Krona are other foreign currencies which should do well going forward, since they are creditor nations with sound fiscal policies and exporters of natural resources.

Disclosure: no position in foreign currencies, long gold and silver mining shares, long natural gas pipeline master limited partnerships.

Ben Bernanke, TIME's Person of the Year

In a sign that the end is near, Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke was voted "Person of the Year" by Time Magazine. This is ironically similar to President Obama winning the Nobel Peace Prize--and then ordering 30,000 more American troops into Afghanistan.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1946375_1947251,00.html

Bernanke, along with former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, have done more harm to the US economy than is fathomable. He may have temporarily thwarted a financial meltdown in 2008, but has only kicked the can down the road, creating the greatest financial bubble in the history of mankind--the US Treasury bond market. This bubble will also eventually burst, as the Fed funds rate can't drop below zero. Instead of preventing such a crisis, he is now credited with saving us. Here is a truer picture of his missteps and missed calls:



Person of the year? I don't think so. This guy missed the call on the biggest real estate and stock market bubble in 80 years--destroying trillions of dollars of wealth in the process. Americans and citizens worldwide are jobless as a result, subject to a reduced standard of living. Yet Bernanke is a hero?

Al Gore on ice caps

Al Gore, inventor of the internet, and of "An Inconvenient Truth" fame, at some more shoe leather in Copenhagen.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6956783.ece

In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.

Global warming?

Bill Bell, a Canadian geologist, took out a full page ad in a local Canadian paper:

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/billbell.pdf

It is mind boggling that millions of people around the world should get so concerned about a temperature increase of one degree over the past one hundred years that they are prepared to live in poverty if necessary to try to correct it. Why are responsible people not speaking out? Millions could die of economic starvation rather than global warming.