2011: The Last (Debt-Consumerist) Christmas in America

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec11/TLCIA12-11.html

Art Cashin: Fed is walking a tightrope

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-fed-walking-tightrope-hurricane-and-other-observations

While we are seeing the headline numbers are pretty bad, behind the headlines there are some equally disturbing numbers. The government, we are hearing, because of tight budgets, people are being asked to take 1, 2 or even 3 furloughs a week without pay. That's wage deflation, and that's gonna put a strain on things: consumers are going to hold back.

The layoff seem to be slowing because business was taking the other approach. If you want to stay working I am going to have to cut your salary and/or your benefits.

Small businesses account for 50% of our GDP, they account for 60% of new hiring. We are not seeing new hiring because small businesses are not buying into this. So the recovery has not hit main street yet. If you ask small businesses why aren't you borrowing, their answer is "send me a customer, don't send me credit."

We've had more and more signs of potential deflation and the Fed is terrified of that...They've got to come up with something inventive, something as they call it, 'new quantitative easing.' And yet that brings the concern if they do something that is dramatically different, will people say 'What do they know that we don't know? What is the big cause of this?' So the Fed is walking a tightrope in a hurricane and it's going to be tough."

Something strange in the precious metals pits

COMEX gold declined a small amount, but silver prices are surging today. This bifurcation is unusual, as these precious metals usually move in tandem. I've posted numerous blogs on the dual utility of silver as an investment and industrial metal--and how the price suppression by bullion banks in London and New York is exacerbating the shortage in physical inventory. Eventually, the price of the futures markets becomes disconnected from the physical markets, as industrial buyers scramble to find supply.

Unlike retail consumers who are typically price-sensitive (i.e. retail gold jewelry buyers are priced out when when prices rise), industrial buyers must find physical supply wherever they can in order to keep their production lines humming, so they will bid up prices in tight markets. For instance, a buyer of a Bill of Materials does not want to be in the critical path of the supply chain for Apple's popular IPad, because delays translate to millions in losses. There is silver content in products as diverse as electronics, solar panels, disinfectants, antibiotics, mirrors, optics, silverware--in addition to jewelry.

A run on physical silver will eventually spill over into the paper futures market where most contracts are settled via cash. However, if longs (buyers) insist on physical delivery, there would be a deeper run on silver, causing a huge short squeeze and soaring prices. Both longs and shorts scrambling to cover their shorts will intensify buying pressure. With naked shorting prevalent in precious metals futures markets, the COMEX could experience a default, where futures contracts are undeliverable. Longs expecting delivery would be defrauded.

That's why taking physical possession is so crucial in the event of a default.

Please see disclaimers in the sidebar.

Disclosure: long physical gold and silver, long mining shares.

Deflation or Inflation?

That is the big question, because the answer to that question is a key driver for investment decisions.

My answer? It depends. That sounds like a cop out, so I will need to clarify.

Top-down, the answer is that essential goods and services will experience a surge in prices as a by-product of a weakening dollar. We will pay more to heat our homes, fill up our gas tanks, and put food on the table. Why is that, when we have slackening industrial demand? Because we are now competing with a growing middle-class population in Asia--billions of them, in fact. As their standards of living continue to rise, they will eat more meat, putting pressure on grains. They will drive more, and buy more homes as they urbanize. Hence, we should continue to see an uptrend in prices of basic commodities--even as the economy sputters in and out of recovery.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may continue to flash deflation, as the US consumer de-levers and cuts back on consumption. A moribund economy will keep a lid on labor rates, which will help control inflation on some services. Not only are home prices declining, but so are rentals. The cost of high-end consumer discretionary goods will also be dampened due to cuts from even the wealthy. The government will declare that deflation is the boogey-man--not inflation, self-rationalizing that continued deficit spending and quantitative easing will be necessary to keep "stimulating" the economy.

Yet, US consumers will feel the brunt of this bifurcation, as our wages decline while the cost of essentials rise. This is a consequence of our economy being driven by the US consumer, who is tapped out. Seventy percentage of the US economy is consumer-oriented. By contrast, only 40% of China's economy is consumer-driven. As their economy matures and continues to fluorish, consumption will surely rise, even as manufacturing exports to the US and Europe decline. A rising Chinese (and Indian) consumer will strain tight supplies. Coupled with a weakening dollar, the US consumer will have to grapple with diminished purchasing power, even though prices for some items will be deflated.

Enclosed is an article on what to expect going forward:

http://www.businessinsider.com/rosenberg-buy-commodities-as-the-trade-war-escalates-2009-9

Dead cat bounce?

Due to my increasing anxiety with every rally in equities, I gathered some charts of the S & P 500 Index. It recorded a low of 666 in early March 2009, down from the October 2007 high of 1565. This represents a decline of 57.5% from the peak. What came next has been this powerful 50% retracement to approximately the 1000 level. A Fibonacci 61.8% retracement yields a value of 1078 as an intermediate peak for the SP 500. I would be a net seller if and when we approach that level.

For comparison's sake, between the 1929 peak of the Dow Jones Industrials Average to the low in 1932 (see first chart above), the market had a handful of double-digit gains. But in that duration, the market declined by 90%! In other words, for every 1 step up, the market took 3 steps down.

From the 1932 low to the 1937 peak, the DJIA had 3 triple-digit gains, including one for almost 300%--almost a quadruple. But none of these powerful rallies prevented the Great Depression. And investors holding since 1929 weren't whole again until 1953.

The harder a market falls, the higher the market rebounds, but the more difficult it is to get back to even--despite multiple powerful rallies. With the 2007-2009 decline "only" measuring 57.5%, this retracement rally should not have been surprising.

To the trained eye of an electronics engineer, the SP 500 chart between 2007 and 2009 looks like a waveform transitioning between logic "1" to logic "0" (see second chart above). However, instead of being an ideal waveform with uniform horizontal and vertical lines, the signal is distorted with undershoot and high-frequency ringing.

In layman's terms, this market is a dead cat bounce. And gravity will eventually cause it to fall back down before finding a steady-state equilibrium. The hope is that the SP 500 secular low of 666 will not be revisited, and that the index will find a trading range of consolidation above that low until a recovery is well-established.

I still posit this is a bear market rally--and not the beginning of a secular bull market. The world economy is still undergoing a delevering process as corporations, individuals and governments are still awash in debt. Banks haven't honestly accounted for toxic assets on their balance sheets. With unemployment climbing, tight credit conditions, and the American consumer tapped out, any economic recovery will remain muted. Equities may still rise from here, but at some point (soon), the market will become over-extended.

Is it time to take profits on the reflation play?

We've participated in a strong rally in commodities, including energy, crops, and precious metals, achieving triple digit gains in some cases.

Actually, I've already lightened up on some major gold mining positions, and replaced them more speculative gold prospectors with impressive track records and land holdings. This should give me more upside on any advances in rallies in gold, but also gives me more exposure should gold correct. Short-term, this could be a mistake on my part, but long-term, it should pay off if they continue to find more gold deposits.

Is this rally in hard assets sustainable, given my bearish outlook on an economic recovery? The rally can be explained due to dollar weakness and poor participation in long-dated US Treasury bond auctions. In other words, we called it right. But has this rally gone too far too fast? Will I be able to pick up these same assets at a lower price in the future, once this phantom economic recovery is exposed? Personal and corporate debt is still strangling the US consumer, and government debt is at an all-time high with no end in sight. Can China's recent upsurge in demand replace continued demand destruction in Europe and the US?

I'll continue to play the binary-event driven biotechs, hoping for continued outsized gains. The overall market could become irrationally extended despite deteriorating fundamentals, climbing the "wall of worry". But I feel the need to lighten up just a little more to lock in profits. I may miss out on the absolute top, sacrificing another 10-20%, but at current levels, I believe there is more downside risk. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't act on hope alone.

Most people are terrible market timers, and I am one of them. Generally, I will miss the exact bottoms and tops of markets. But if I can participate in the majority of a big move, like the rally since March 2009, and if I can avoid the majority of a big decline like I did in 2008, I can live to see another day.

Investing is risky and you can lose most or all your investment. Please do your due diligence. Good luck to all.

Irony

Without getting ideaological (okay, I'm lying, let's get ideaological), enclosed is an interesting note from well-respected Dennis Gartman:

Speaking at the People’s Congress in Beijing recently, Premier Wen Jiabo made it quite clear that China intends fully to achieve 8% growth in GDP this year. Not next year; not two years hence, but this year...’09; the year of the Ox... this year.

Interestingly, Mr. Wen made it clear that not only was the government intent upon force feeding liquidity into the nation’s banks, but was also prepared to make material cuts in income taxes, across the board to sponsor such growth.

Wen made it clear that the only way he can see Chinese economic growth returning to the not-so-long-ago-lost halcyon days of 9% growth almost relentlessly shall require more than simple reserve injections.

Mr. Wen said that it is his intention to turn China from an export driven society to a consumer driven one instead. He know that liquidity alone will not suffice to do what Beijing needs the economy to do; hence Mr. Wen will begin this new era of growing consumer demand by cutting corporate and personal income taxes. According to The China Daily, Mr. Wen said, in the simplest of terms, that it is Beijing’s intention to spur the economy forward by “boosting domestic demand through residential tax cuts, in addition to the levy reduction for companies.”

The latter has already been put into effect; the former is coming. Mr. Wen’s proposed “residential” tax cuts include tax cuts on securities transactions; tax cuts on property sales; smaller taxes on exports and an end to a number of “administrative charges” on various goods and services. At a time when American law makers on the Left are debating the possibilities of taxing stock transactions, the Chinese are moving to end them!

Further, China is moving swiftly ahead with very real “infrastructure” spending. The new term here in the US is “shovel ready.” Our stimulus program is manifestly un-shovel ready; in China, the shovels are already at hand and the programs are being put into effect, with workers being hired and ground being broken.

Mr. Wen has the calendar working for him too, for this year marks the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. As is always the case, China will have myriad numbers of building programs in place to commemorate that event. Too... and this is hard for us to believe, for time passes so quickly... this is the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Uprising. Mr. Wen and Mr. Hu will want to make certain that things are on the economic mend in order to keep dissidents wrong-footed throughout the years.

This is a strange era in which we live then. We live at a time when ex-Communists are taking the more free market route toward a consumer led society. We are living in an era when Beijing reads Atlas Shrugged and Washington reads The Manchester Guardian. We are living in an era when tax cuts of all sorts are effected by Beijing, while Washington talks about and effects tax increases of all sorts. We live in an era when Beijing gets out of the way of entrepreneurs, and Washington throws rocks and rubble in their way instead.

As was said in Ecclesiastes, “To everything, turn, turn, turn...”

Good Luck and Good Trading,

Dennis Gartman