Q1 Energy Earnings Shocker: Then And Now

Not everyone is enjoying low crude oil prices, the oil patch in particular.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-02/q1-energy-earnings-shocker-then-and-now

FERC Suspends JPMorgan Unit’s Power-Trading Authority

JPMorgan is allegedly manipulating markets?  Say it ain't so...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-15/ferc-suspends-jpmorgan-unit-s-power-trading-authority

Why Energy May Be Abundant But Not Cheap

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct12/oil-abundant-costly10-12.html

Many people think “peak oil” is about the world is “running out of oil."

Actually, “peak oil” is about the world running out of cheap, easy-to-get oil. That means fossil fuels might be abundant (supply exceeds demand) for a time but still remain expensive.

The abundance or scarcity of energy is only one factor in its price. As the cost of extraction, transport, refining, and taxes rise, so does the “cost basis” or the total cost of production from the field to the pump. Anyone selling oil below its cost basis will lose money and go out of business.

We are trained to expect that anything that is abundant will be cheap, but energy is a special case: it can be abundant but costly, because it’s become costly to produce.

1.4 Billion Don't Have Electricity

http://youtu.be/uPnm8bWGilE

Consumer Price Index Summary

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
 0.5 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau
 of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all
 items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

 The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in
 March, a smaller increase than in the previous two months.

 The index for all items less food and energy
 has increased 1.2 percent with the shelter index up 0.9 percent.

The US government must think its citizens are fools to believe this inflation data.  Sure, I cherry-picked some data, and more detailed data does show rising prices in food and energy, but to suggest our cost of living has only increased 2.7% year-over-year is insulting at best.

QE in Europe

http://www.guildinvestment.com/2010/11/23/just-a-few-points-before-this-holiday-week/

QE in Europe— the European sovereign debt situation

It is not surprising that Europe’s short embrace of austerity has been unsuccessful.  There is never a choice for austerity until all other alternatives have been exhausted.  History is replete with examples.  Why don’t some of these stock market commentators read some global economic history?  It is obvious now and has always been obvious that Europe will go for QE.  It does not matter what they say about austerity.  We have been advising investors to watch what they do.  They are bailing out Ireland; Portugal is right behind and will be followed by Spain, Italy, and even France in the future.  There is no solution that politicians will embrace other than QE [money printing] because a program of austerity means the end of their political careers.  They will put their careers above the national interest.

It is absurd to believe that the U.S. dollar will be a safe haven over the intermediate term

An even more absurd belief is the one that puts U.S. dollar and U.S. debt as a safe haven.  There is not any convincing economic evidence that the U.S. dollar is well managed, and there is no reason to believe that the dollar will rise in value.  In fact, it is the U.S. governments’ intention to devalue the dollar and to print money to avoid a deflation in the U.S.  Why do some global commentators see the dollar as a safe haven?  In our opinion, the only safe haven is precious metals, energy, food and other assets which will hedge against the inevitable inflation that the above policies create.

Energy industry safety

Click on chart to enlarge.

Despite its unsavory reputation, nuclear energy sources may not only be the cleanest environmentally, but also the safest. Recall that sun power and wind turbines require not-so-green manufacturing processes and vast land, respectively. This pie chart graphs the number of deaths for energy industries.

We need to develop alternative energy resources to wean ourselves away from hostile foreign oil producers for economic and national security reasons, but we should do it methodically and strategically. Driving our economy to the ground in an attempt to maintain energy independence will have catastrophic outcomes.

Inflation rises

Thanks to my friend Dick for this article. The headline says inflation rose 2% last month, but when you peel back the onion, you'll see a different picture.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.f4ca4a183df2102e9ad9338f1c9b7c75.171&show_article=1

Energy and food costs rose 18.7 percent against March 2009, up almost four percentage points compared with February.

I guess they believe items like food, gas, home heating, and electricity bills are immaterial. In their defense, the US government excludes food and energy in their Consumer Price Index (cpi) due to high volatility, but the omissions don't reflect reality in determining purchasing power.

Open letter to the CFTC

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is holding an open hearing this Thursday, January 14 to deliberate and possibly vote on position limits for commodity futures markets, specifically the COMEX. Enforcing hard position limits prevents a few powerful entities from cornering the market on a commodity, and reduces the effectiveness of price suppression schemes. In other words, large commercial traders like bullion banks and hedge funds won't be able to rig markets, as the playing field is kept even. Rigged markets are destructive because market participants eventually exit and never return.

In an apt analogy, if investors in 401K savings accounts knew the mutual fund markets were rigged and investors were losing money due to surreptitious gaming by insiders, those retail investors would no longer invest their savings in said mutual funds. Likewise, Ponzi scheme fraudsters like Bernie Madoff discourage all investors due to lack of transparency and oversight by regulatory bodies like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The CFTC has a similar role--only they monitor the futures and derivatives markets. It's time they stopped turning a blind eye to the price manipulation endemic in the precious metals and energy exchanges.

Dear Sirs,

It is outrageous that JPMorgan is allowed to be short 40% of the COMEX silver market and 30% of world production. There should be hard position limits in the precious metals markets, just like position limits should be enforced in other commodities, including the energy complex. This prevents price manipulation by a few concentrated positions, and sheds transparency in markets. Exemptions should be closely scrutinized, and naked shorting outlawed.

If we are to have free markets with true price discovery, we need to enforce position limits in all markets. Otherwise, the market is rigged to the benefit of a few, and destruction of the majority. In that scenario, eventually the market shrinks, as participants exit.

The current Administration gained office with a message of change and transparency...and the end of corruption and deceit. Please do your part in enforcing position limits in all commodity exchanges--including precious metals.

It is much better to choose to do the right thing, then to have it forced upon you. The price manipulation of certain commodities has temporary effect, but the true supply/demand dynamics of any commodity will eventually come to fruition. It will be by stampede if the market-rigging tactics are allowed to continue. Naked short sellers will be exposed when demand for physical delivery is unmet.

The ball is firmly in your court. Thank you.

China cornering the market on rare earth elements

Warning: adult language!



Put this in the "unintended consequences of the anthropogenic global warming hoax" bin. There is no doubt we should diversify away from petro-fueled middle eastern countries for our energy sources--for national security and economic reasons. But the transition should be orderly and measured. Because if the carbon-reducing extremist crowd has their way, the US will be plundered into the abyss.

Green technologies actually require natural resource elements that must be mined--tons of it, in fact. They are unfamiliar to most, except for those who can recite from the Periodic Table of the Elements. Rare earth elements (REE) like Neodymium, Lanthanum, Terbium, and Dysprosium are used in diverse applications as solar, wind, and eletric car batteries. The problem is China controls 97% of the world's supply of these REE.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/concern-as-china-clamps-down-on-rare-earth-exports-1855387.html

So while China may outwardly reject carbon credit proposals, which aim to punish violators of carbon-emission thresholds (the "polluters"), they have hedged themselves by ensuring they control the components necessary for enabling green technologies.

"This is chess, it ain't checkers!"

Is it time to take profits on the reflation play?

We've participated in a strong rally in commodities, including energy, crops, and precious metals, achieving triple digit gains in some cases.

Actually, I've already lightened up on some major gold mining positions, and replaced them more speculative gold prospectors with impressive track records and land holdings. This should give me more upside on any advances in rallies in gold, but also gives me more exposure should gold correct. Short-term, this could be a mistake on my part, but long-term, it should pay off if they continue to find more gold deposits.

Is this rally in hard assets sustainable, given my bearish outlook on an economic recovery? The rally can be explained due to dollar weakness and poor participation in long-dated US Treasury bond auctions. In other words, we called it right. But has this rally gone too far too fast? Will I be able to pick up these same assets at a lower price in the future, once this phantom economic recovery is exposed? Personal and corporate debt is still strangling the US consumer, and government debt is at an all-time high with no end in sight. Can China's recent upsurge in demand replace continued demand destruction in Europe and the US?

I'll continue to play the binary-event driven biotechs, hoping for continued outsized gains. The overall market could become irrationally extended despite deteriorating fundamentals, climbing the "wall of worry". But I feel the need to lighten up just a little more to lock in profits. I may miss out on the absolute top, sacrificing another 10-20%, but at current levels, I believe there is more downside risk. I hope I'm wrong, but I can't act on hope alone.

Most people are terrible market timers, and I am one of them. Generally, I will miss the exact bottoms and tops of markets. But if I can participate in the majority of a big move, like the rally since March 2009, and if I can avoid the majority of a big decline like I did in 2008, I can live to see another day.

Investing is risky and you can lose most or all your investment. Please do your due diligence. Good luck to all.

Another reason to be bullish on gold

First, the Fed has dropped short-term interest rates down to 0%. Then, the Treasury is injecting up to $7.4 trillion in additional capital, literally out of thin air, to support ailing (and failing) industries.

Capacity issues are creeping in, as farmers lose crops due to drought, mines dry up, and exploration for new resources are stalled due to the financial crisis. All these factors point to inflation. However, fears of deflation rule the day.

Yet, gold prices keep trending up. Shares of gold mining companies have shot up even more--up 100% in some cases.

The markets are betting on deflation of asset values, including equities and real estate. Hence, both are likely to remain low for some time. And crude oil and other energy sectors have been battered. Agreed.

But looking forward (instead of through the rearview mirror), oil won't remain below $40/barrel forever. And when that dynamic reverses course, inflation will rule of the day.

And today, we had other things to worry about. Palestinians are shooting rockets at the Israeli border. Pakistani troops have abandoned the Afghanistan border and re-aligning themselves along the Indian border. The price of gold shot up over $20/oz within minutes of the news.

Today, we found out gold is not only a great hedge against inflation, it is also the currency of last resort in times of financial and geopolitical crises.

Good news, bad news...

The good news is that oil and fuel prices have backed down, as I predicted recently. Further good news indicates Americans are driving less, reducing our carbon emissions. The bad news is that the reduced tax revenue from fuel sales has left the federal and state governments even more cash-strapped.

Another gem I saw on the news is that our superhero Governor has mandated all non-emergency response state employees will now earn the minimum Federal wage of $6.55 an hour. That paycheck should really help pay the variable mortgage about to reset--not.

The US is a mess, and a recent trip by a friend to Australia illuminates the growing gap, as the land Down Under is experiencing a bull market in natural resources, fueled by booming economies in China and India. Australia is clean, modern, and their citizens are in good spirits, buoyed by a tourism boom as well. Kinda reminds me of us in the late 90's.

Meanwhile, China and India are aggressively securing energy and natural resources, acquiring equity stakes in suppliers, setting the stage for the US to be forced to buy at spot prices.

The Fed has to continue printing dollars in order to sustain an unsustainable balance of economic growth and fiscal responsibility. A money manager quipped that he senses the public believes we're in the late innings of this recovery, which is true--but not when you consider it's a 7-game World Series, not a one-game wonder. In other words, we should continue to have record foreclosures and bankruptcies for a couple more years before we turn this tanker around. The good news is that equity prices should rebound a year before the actual bottom, as the stock market is a forward discounting mechanism.