" Sell economic ignorance; buy gold."
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Friday, June 2, 2017
Tim Harford's Gold Investment Folly
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/tim-harford-gold-investment-012420133
Labels:
Folly,
gold,
investment,
Tim Harford
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Friday, December 14, 2012
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Gold is Not an Investment By CARL RICHARDS
In order to maintain a semblance of balance, I have to include comments from idiots also. Carl Richards fits into that catalog, a bitter one wrong-way Corrigan who has completely missed the train--and will continue to miss it. Thanks to Kitty for pointing out that the comments from readers are more enlightening than from the author himself.
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/23/gold-is-not-an-investment/?ref=business
http://bucks.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/23/gold-is-not-an-investment/?ref=business
Labels:
gold,
investment
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Something strange in the precious metals pits
COMEX gold declined a small amount, but silver prices are surging today. This bifurcation is unusual, as these precious metals usually move in tandem. I've posted numerous blogs on the dual utility of silver as an investment and industrial metal--and how the price suppression by bullion banks in London and New York is exacerbating the shortage in physical inventory. Eventually, the price of the futures markets becomes disconnected from the physical markets, as industrial buyers scramble to find supply.
Unlike retail consumers who are typically price-sensitive (i.e. retail gold jewelry buyers are priced out when when prices rise), industrial buyers must find physical supply wherever they can in order to keep their production lines humming, so they will bid up prices in tight markets. For instance, a buyer of a Bill of Materials does not want to be in the critical path of the supply chain for Apple's popular IPad, because delays translate to millions in losses. There is silver content in products as diverse as electronics, solar panels, disinfectants, antibiotics, mirrors, optics, silverware--in addition to jewelry.
A run on physical silver will eventually spill over into the paper futures market where most contracts are settled via cash. However, if longs (buyers) insist on physical delivery, there would be a deeper run on silver, causing a huge short squeeze and soaring prices. Both longs and shorts scrambling to cover their shorts will intensify buying pressure. With naked shorting prevalent in precious metals futures markets, the COMEX could experience a default, where futures contracts are undeliverable. Longs expecting delivery would be defrauded.
That's why taking physical possession is so crucial in the event of a default.
Please see disclaimers in the sidebar.
Disclosure: long physical gold and silver, long mining shares.
Unlike retail consumers who are typically price-sensitive (i.e. retail gold jewelry buyers are priced out when when prices rise), industrial buyers must find physical supply wherever they can in order to keep their production lines humming, so they will bid up prices in tight markets. For instance, a buyer of a Bill of Materials does not want to be in the critical path of the supply chain for Apple's popular IPad, because delays translate to millions in losses. There is silver content in products as diverse as electronics, solar panels, disinfectants, antibiotics, mirrors, optics, silverware--in addition to jewelry.
A run on physical silver will eventually spill over into the paper futures market where most contracts are settled via cash. However, if longs (buyers) insist on physical delivery, there would be a deeper run on silver, causing a huge short squeeze and soaring prices. Both longs and shorts scrambling to cover their shorts will intensify buying pressure. With naked shorting prevalent in precious metals futures markets, the COMEX could experience a default, where futures contracts are undeliverable. Longs expecting delivery would be defrauded.
That's why taking physical possession is so crucial in the event of a default.
Please see disclaimers in the sidebar.
Disclosure: long physical gold and silver, long mining shares.
Labels:
COMEX,
consumer,
default,
futures,
gold,
industrial,
investment,
physical bullion,
silver
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Supply side of gold
There has been much focus on the fundamentals of the rally in gold prices, mostly on increasing demand for nonmonetary (jewelry, art, industrial) and monetary (investment) reasons. Gold has a consistent record of having store of value over centuries, and has been a useful hedge against inflation, financial crises, and currency debasement.
But the supply side of the equation hasn't been addressed by the mainstream financial media. The bullish case on the supply side is equally compelling. Gold production peaked in 2001 and is in steady decline, despite much higher prices. Higher demand and lower supply can only have one long-term outcome.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/miners-were-running-out-of-gold-20091125-jqqy.html
But the supply side of the equation hasn't been addressed by the mainstream financial media. The bullish case on the supply side is equally compelling. Gold production peaked in 2001 and is in steady decline, despite much higher prices. Higher demand and lower supply can only have one long-term outcome.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/miners-were-running-out-of-gold-20091125-jqqy.html
Labels:
building supply,
decline,
demand,
gold,
investment,
nonmonetary,
rally
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