Monday, September 27, 2010

Central banks no longer selling gold


Click on graphs to enlarge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/central-banks-no-longer-selling-gold-duh-factor-1010
Something funny (and quite revolutionary) happened during the CBGA's (Central Bank Gold Agreement) year ending this Sunday - the group of 15 signatory banks sold a mere 6.2 tonnes of gold, a massive 96% decline from the year earlier, according to provisional data.This means that unlike in the past, when it was central banker prerogative #1 to sell some gold and every year just to keep all the longs on their toes, this year the trend has finally changed. As the FT reports, "the sales are the lowest since the agreement was signed in 1999 and well below the peak of 497 tonnes in 2004-05." And yes, we do love the FT's brilliant summation of the change in mindset: "In the 1990s and 2000s, central banks swapped their non-yielding bullion for sovereign debt, which gives a steady annual return. But now, central banks and investors are seeking the security of gold."

Sure, bearer bonds may yield an annual return, but what happens if yields rise and the principal on the bonds evaporate?

European central banks are unlikely to sell much more gold in the new CBGA year, according to a survey by the Financial Times.

Although many central banks declined to detail their sales plans, the responses of some, along with numerous interviews with bankers and consultants, suggest it is unlikely there will be a return to the trend of the past decade, when CBGA signatories sold on average 388 tonnes a year.

The central banks of Sweden, Slovakia, Ireland and Slovenia said they had no plans to sell, while Switzerland reiterated a previous statement to the same effect.

The CBGA was first signed after gold miners protested that central banks’ rush to sell was depressing prices.

Here is a description of the CBGA (Central Bank Gold Agreement): http://www.reserveasset.gold.org/central_bank_agreements/cbga1/

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