Saturday, August 14, 2010

JPMorgan adds to position despite downgrade

On August 2, 2010, JPMorgan Chase analyst Kory Casimov downgraded Arena Pharmaceuticals to "Neutral" from "Overweight", reaffirming a $6 price target. Shares declined as a result of the downgrade.

ttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Arena-shares-fall-on-JPMorgan-apf-3217542724.html?x=0&.v=1


This downgrade occurred two weeks after JPMorgan had upgraded Arena on July 16, 2010, after competitor Vivus's anti-obesity drug Qnexa was rejected by an advisory committee.

Why the sudden flip flop from upgrade to downgrade, after positive news? Shares of ARNA had soared from below $3 to a peak of $8 a month later, after several positive developments. So perhaps ARNA was trading at frothy levels. But with pivotal events of Lorcaserin's own advisory committee review on September 16, 2010 and a PDUFA date of October 22, 2010, shares of ARNA could rise even more on positive outcomes.

But a closer look at ownership holdings triggers more questions than answers on JPMorgan's motivation for the upgrade and subsequent downgrade.

Records show that as of August 12, 2010, JPMorgan had a new long position for ARNA shares:

2010-08-12 2010-06-30 13F-HR J P Morgan Chase And Co -2.35% Institution 43,082 New Holding 43,082

Which brings up the question: Why would JPMorgan downgrade ARNA--only to build a new long position in ARNA shares? Could their downgrade allow their clients to cover their short positions at a lower price? Or perhaps could they enable long clients to buy in at a lower price--after missing the big run up? A cynic would deduce the downgrade simultaneously provided an escape hatch for trapped shorts, and a lower entry point for long clients who missed the boat.

Best-case, it's a conflict of interest to issue a downgrade and then build a long position. Worst-case, this could be blatant manipulation of a stock.

And Wall Street wonders why retail investors are retreating from markets. Perhaps they're tired of being fleeced by investment firms more interested in their own proprietary trading desk than their fiduciary duties to their retail clients.

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