Showing posts with label wrong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wrong. Show all posts

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Why Goldman Sachs Is Wrong On Gold & Danger For The U.S.

Pento has been banned from a couple financial media outlets for his abrasive, yet truthful analyses.  He makes a solid case for gold bullishness, as well as for economic storms to return.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/9/13_Why_Goldman_Sachs_Is_Wrong_On_Gold_%26_Danger_For_The_U.S..html

Friday, October 11, 2013

Commodity Prices Wrong as Often as 27% of Time for Traders

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-08/commodity-prices-wrong-as-often-as-27-of-the-time-for-traders.html
Libor and ISDAfix are part of a suite of financial benchmarks that underpin about $1 quadrillion of assets and trades, almost 14 times global economic output in 2012.
I wasn't kidding when I pointed out that the notional value of financial derivatives was over $1.2 quadrillion.  ISDA represents $400 trillion of interest rate swaps.  If bond yields rise appreciably, those derivatives would blow up the global financial system.

Friday, September 14, 2012

CPM Group's Jeff Christian on BNN on eve of gold and silver explosion: Go short

Jeff Christian of CPM was wrong on gold--again.  In fact, the clown has been wrong for a decade. Why he is on financial TV, and why anybody would listen to this pathological liar is beyond me.

http://www.gata.org/node/11741

Here's a link to the video clip:

http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/september-2012/the-close-september-10-2012/#clip757705

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Why the experts missed the crash

http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/
Why are so many experts so wrong, yet people keep listening to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? The author of Expert Political Judgement builds on Isaah Berlin's characterization of judgment modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don't notice and don't care when they're wrong; that's why they're so compelling. Foxes learn.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/17/pf/experts_Tetlock.moneymag/index.htm

I agree with Tetlock, but he completely misses the mark when he says Lawrence Summers has good predictive ability.  Summers was instrumental in levering up the US banking system under Clinton, which subsequently crashed a decade later.  On the other hand, Summers resigned from Obama's cabinet last year, a possible precursor to another financial crisis.