Showing posts with label jobless claims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jobless claims. Show all posts

Friday, October 12, 2012

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Jobless claims revisions


Click on graph to enlarge

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/BLS%20Revision%20Update.jpg

Normally, when data is revised, it averages out to some points being revised up if the initial data is too low, and some points being revised down if the initial data is too high. Over time, there is a regression to the mean, which is a neutral value of zero.

But after looking at the chart above of initial and continuing jobless claims, we find that upward revisions occur 75 out of 76 weeks. The odds of this happening by coincidence are statistically impossible. Obviously, there is a persistent bias to publish data which understates the true unemployment picture.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics should rename themselves the Bureau of Lies and Statistics.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Jobless claims rise

And government officials are "surprised"?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jmT59dgLTTziX4p9X9MRBRpWZGdQD9FQM1JO1


Welcome to the new normal. This is no recession. Unemployment is not 9.9%--the true number is 22%.

http://www.shadowstats.com/


This is the big D, and I'm not talking about Dallas (Detroit, maybe).