The case for gold in the era of financial virtual reality

 

 

http://usagold.com/publications/NewsViewsMAY2018Sum.html

Greyerz – The Financial Doomsday Clock Is Close To Midnight

We already have thermonuclear war in the gold pits.

http://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-the-financial-doomsday-clock-is-close-to-midnight/

The World Is On The Edge Of A Financial Fukushima-Style Nightmare

http://kingworldnews.com/the-world-is-now-on-the-cusp-of-a-financial-fukushima-style-nightmare/

Volcker spares no one in broad critique

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/09/23/volcker-spares-no-one-in-broad-critique/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Feconomics%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Real+Time+Economics+Blog%29

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker scrapped a prepared speech he had planned to deliver at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Thursday, and instead delivered a blistering, off-the-cuff critique leveled at nearly every corner of the financial system.

Standing at a lectern with his hands in his pockets, Volcker moved unsparingly from banks to regulators to business schools to the Fed to money-market funds during his luncheon speech.

He praised the new financial overhaul law, but said the system remained at risk because it is subject to future “judgments” of individual regulators, who he said would be relentlessly lobbied by banks and politicians to soften the rules.

“This is a plea for structural changes in markets and market regulation,” he said at one point.

Here are his views on a variety of topics.

1) Macroprudential regulation — “somehow those words grate on my ears.”

2) Banking — Investment banks became “trading machines instead of investment banks [leading to] encroachment on the territory of commercial banks, and commercial banks encroached on the territory of others in a way that couldn’t easily be managed by the old supervisory system.”

3) Financial system — “The financial system is broken. We can use that term in late 2008, and I think it’s fair to still use the term unfortunately. We know that parts of it are absolutely broken, like the mortgage market which only happens to be the most important part of our capital markets [and has] become a subsidiary of the U.S. government.”

4) Business schools — “We had all our best business schools in the United States pouring out financial engineers, every smart young mathematician and physicist said ‘I don’t want to be a civil engineer, a mechanical engineer. I’m a smart guy, I want to go to Wall Street.’ And then you know all the risks were going to be sliced and diced and [people thought] the market would be resilient and not face any crises. We took care of all that stuff, and I think that was the general philosophy that markets are efficient and self correcting and we don’t have to worry about them too much.

5) Central banks and the Fed — “Central banks became…maybe a little too infatuated with their own skills and authority because they found secrets to price stability…I think its fair to say there was a certain neglect of supervisory responsibilities, certainly not confined to the Federal Reserve, but including the Federal Reserve, I only say that because the Federal Reserve is the most important in my view.”

6) The recession — “It’s so difficult to get out of this recession because of the basic disequilibrium in the real economy.”

7) Council of regulators — “Potentially cumbersome.”

8) On judgment — “Let me suggest to you that relying on judgment all the time makes for a very heavy burden whether you are regulating an individual institution or whether you are regulating the whole market or whether you are deciding what might be disturbing or what might not be disturbing. It’s pretty tough and it’s subject to all kinds of political and institutional blockages as well.”

9) On procyclicality — “It’s the hardest thing as a regulator in my opinion…when things are really going well, the economy is going well, the market is not disturbed, but you see developments in an institution or in markets that is potentially destabilizing, doing something about it is extremely difficult. Because the answer of the people in the markets is, ‘what are you talking about? Things are going really well. We know more about banking and finance than you do, get out of my hair, if you don’t get out of my hair I’m going to write my congressman.’”

10) Risk management — “Markets that are prone to excesses in one direction or another are not simply managed under the assumption that we can assume that everybody follows a normal distribution curve. Normal distribution curves — if I would submit to you — do not exist in financial markets. Its not that they are fat tails, they don’t exist. I keep hearing about fat tails, and Jesus, it’s only supposed to occur every 100 years, and it appears every 10 years.”

11) Derivatives — “I’ve heard so many stories about how important” derivatives are but “there doesn’t seem to be much doubt that the creation of derivatives has far exceeded any pressing need for hedging.”

12) Money market funds — “Money market funds have encroached so much on the banking market. They are nothing, in my view, but a regulatory arbitrage. The purpose that they serve in handling payments and short term paper is a commercial banking function” but they don’t hold the capital or face the regulation of banks.

13) The Fed and Dodd-Frank — Volcker said it was a “miracle” that despite all the criticism aimed at the Fed the central bank “came out with enhanced regulatory authorities rather than reduced regulatory authorities.”

Irrationally exuberance to unusually uncertain

http://usawatchdog.com/irrational-exuberance-to-unusually-uncertain/

Just this past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified in front of the Senate banking panel. In opening remarks, Bernanke said, “. . . the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain. We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability."

Sounds like Helicopter Ben is expecting another "event" and is fully prepared to drop USDollars out of the sky.

Deep Capture and bear raids

It's a longish read, and has raised the ire of many financial institutions, but this article exposes the underbelly of Wall Street and its accomplices, including mainstream financial media icons like CNBC and Jim Cramer. deepcapture.com is a highly recommended read, one which reads better than a spy novel--only it's not fiction.

http://www.smartbrief.com/news/aaaa/industryPR-detail.jsp?id=90097940-195B-4EBE-B497-9CADD523BA91

The most important financial link I've blogged

This may be a re-post, but it's the best article I've seen on central bank intervention in financial markets. It's long-ish, so skip the sublinks for now, and read the whole article first before clicking on the sublinks later to perform further research.

http://www.gata.org/node/8052

If this article doesn't jaundice you on markets and investing, you don't have a pulse.

Lessons from the Great Depression

They are not the lessons many would surmise. Art Laffer, the creator of the Laffer Curve, theorizes that increasing tax rates do not necessarily increase tax revenues. He's been proven wrong on a few issues, especially after his infamous debate against Peter Schiff on CNBC in 2006. In the live debate, Laffer insisted that the economy and the mortgage industry specifically, were doing fine. Schiff took the opposite side of the debate--that the US economy was headed towards the mother lode of collapses due to unsustainable consumption fueled by debt and false prosperity. Schiff, of course, won that debate--and bet, handily.



In other words, Laffer totally missed the call on the impending financial meltdown.

But Laffer does bring up some good historical points on the Great Depression:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203440104574402822202944230.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Bailout or No Bailout?

I'm from the school of let 'em die. If you and I make poor investment decisions, we have to suffer the consequences. These executives applied far too much leverage, took on way too much risk, and after plundering their firms, they get golden parachutes. Where's the accountability factor?

I'm all for the founders of Google earnings billions because they have created a lot of value for consumers, business, shareholders, and employees. But when executives run their firms to the ground, they should not profit from said disasters, whether their firms get bailed out or not. A meritocracy rewards those who add value, not those who detract from it.

As much as I hate that the taxpayers bear the brunt of rescuing an AIG, I reluctantly agree they should probably be bailed out, because if they implode, the cascading illiquidity would essentially freeze up markets worldwide, as the sovereign funds, hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, private equity firms, and every financial institution would suffer a loss of confidence in the US financial markets, which would bring about a dark age analogous to the Great Depression. No one wins in that scenario, save the few bottom fishers with cash and balls to step up and play in the deep end of the pool.

But make no mistake: the intended recipients of these bail outs are the big institutions--not necessarily the common man, altho we all are in the same boat.

Having said that, there is a downside to this massive injection of liquidty--re-inflation. Interest rates should be favorable short-term, but when oil approaches $150 a barrel, when gold flirts with $1500/oz, the Fed will have no choice but to raise rates. Again, the lesser of two evils, but still an evil...Eventually, the economic shocks worldwide and the domestic slowdown will eventually dampen demand and cost of living increases, but until then, gold seems more stable than the US Dollar.

You know the world is turned upside down when there is more concern about the USD than the Brazilian currency, Russia has a flat tax, and the US has the 2nd highest tax brackets in the western world. Our leaders have forgotten what has made this country (and California) great.

The massive bailout and how it affects us...

Berkshire just injected $5 Billion into Goldman Sachs, while the Fed and Treasury announces a $700 Billion bailout. Despite the market turmoil, I'm going to guess this signals we're closer to a bottom than a cataclysmic meltdown in equities and real estate. We'll still have to endure a couple more years of pain before the economy and the housing market recovers. I think we'll have a couple more big legs down and more bank failures, but bottom fishers should eventually do well by investing in companies with strong balance sheets. Having said that, Christmas will be subdued this year.

The big risk is that more financial institutions become victimized by the cascading insolvency, as many are linked due to naked derivatives. which encourages high-risk speculation without accountability, which got us into this mess in the first place. Leverage works both ways--it's great for maximizing returns in a healthy economy, but it's lethal when markets are unwinding. Right now, we are experiencing a de-leveraging process not seen since the Great Depression. If more big banks start going under, buy more ammo--it's going to get uglier.

Hopefully, the worst is behind us, but I'm not jumping in just yet--I need more proof this tanker is going to turn around. The thought of buying into a fire-sale is enticing, but I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife--it can cut you. I want to see more blood in the streets, and the whites of people's eyes before I dive into the deep end of the pool. For now, I'm happy to be wading in the kiddie pool.

Good luck people--it's going to be a wild ride. This downturn will be a doozie--the worst in our generation, but eventually we will recover, I assure you.

Hunker down, work the extra overtime, use generic instead of designer labels, and ride this sucker out. Don't wait for the other shoe to drop--even if you are currently employed, be prepared for impending layoffs. Work you network, stay in touch with your influencers, and plan for the worst, while hoping for the best. Save for a rainy day, because this is that rainy day. And remember: equity is not cash. Cash is cash. Stay liquid.