Showing posts with label bond market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bond market. Show all posts
Monday, July 8, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
SocGen On Why Japan's Plunging Pension Reserves May "Cause Havoc" To The Japanese Bond Market
I've always said the Japanese bond market--and hence, economy, was in deep feces due to their aging demographics and huge indebtedness. And I've always said the US could learn from Japan's demise, as we encounter the same head winds. The earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear fallouts--as tragic as they were--are mere sideshows and will only accelerate the economic downdrafts, as Japan incurs more debt in the reconstruction effort. The implications are far and wide, as they become net sellers, instead of buyers, of US Treasuries.
Just as the Japanese government has force fed their citizens into Japanese government bonds, nearly nil in returns, it would not surprise me to see the US government mandate retirement funds into US Treasuries--again earning negative returns relative to a higher cost of living. And they'll declare it our patriotic duty to do so. If you're a 401K, IRA, or pension fund holder, I'd be nervous (I am).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/socgen-why-japans-plunging-pension-reserves-may-cause-havoc-japanese-bond-market
Just as the Japanese government has force fed their citizens into Japanese government bonds, nearly nil in returns, it would not surprise me to see the US government mandate retirement funds into US Treasuries--again earning negative returns relative to a higher cost of living. And they'll declare it our patriotic duty to do so. If you're a 401K, IRA, or pension fund holder, I'd be nervous (I am).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/socgen-why-japans-plunging-pension-reserves-may-cause-havoc-japanese-bond-market
Labels:
bond market,
Japan,
pension funds
Monday, May 23, 2011
Bloomberg TV's Matt Miller talks to David Stockman
http://youtu.be/3qKg1fq1FC8
"That kind of crisis would be a vicious sell-off in the global bond market. That could come sooner than people think, because the Fed is getting out of the market with QE2 ending.”
"For the last six months, the Fed has bought nearly 100% of this $6 billion a day that's been issued. Once they are out of the market, where is the new bid, where is the new demand going to come from? The Chinese are getting out of the market because finally they are having to deal with the rip-roaring inflation they have had. The people's printing press of China will not be buying as much U.S. debt because of its own internal problems.”
"When we get to real investors, what are some of the real investors saying today? PIMCO is short the bond, they're selling, they're not buying.
"When we get into a two-way market when real investors began to look at real risk, begin to look at the gong show in Washington and the magnitude of the gap that we are borrowing, I think we're going to get a re-rating of sovereign risk. We're going to get a huge dislocation in the global bond market, and then maybe the wake-up call will finally come."
"The real problem is the de facto policy of both parties is default. When the Republicans say no tax increases, they're saying we want the U.S. government to default. Because there isn't enough political will in this country to solve the problem even halfway on spending cuts. When the Democrats say you can't touch Social Security, when you have Obama sponsoring a war budget for defense that is even bigger than Bush, then I say the policy of the White House is default as well...That is the question that really needs to be understood better and appraised by the bond market. Both parties are advocating default even as they point the finger at each other."
Labels:
bond market,
David Stockman,
debt ceiling,
default risk,
Fed,
gong show
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Market alarm as US fails to control biggest debt in history
This is EXACTLY what I have been warning about for a few years, and I may have been early on the forecast, but the debt bomb is coming home to roost among all developed countries. Most retail investors put too much emphasis on equities, but the bond market is a better indicator of what is really occurring economically worldwide. The fixed-income market is much bigger and participants are mostly institutional investors, the so-called smart money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8196283/Market-alarm-as-US-fails-to-control-biggest-debt-in-history.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8196283/Market-alarm-as-US-fails-to-control-biggest-debt-in-history.html
Labels:
bond market,
debt,
market alarm
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Is China Betting Against a U.S. Housing Recovery
It looks like the Chinese are backing off the US bond market buffet table, and investing in other assets.
http://oilprice.com/Finance/Economy/Is-China-Betting-Against-a-U.S.-Housing-Recovery.html
http://oilprice.com/Finance/Economy/Is-China-Betting-Against-a-U.S.-Housing-Recovery.html
Labels:
bond market,
China,
real estate
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Bill Gross calls the Fed a Ponzi scheme
This won't put Bill Gross's PIMCO on the White House Christmas list, especially since the world's largest bond fund manager has been profiting from front-running the Fed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-calls-fed-mother-all-ponzi-schemes-says-30-year-bond-market-ending
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-calls-fed-mother-all-ponzi-schemes-says-30-year-bond-market-ending
Labels:
Ben Bernanke,
Bill Gross,
bond market,
Fed Chairman,
PIMCO,
Ponzi scheme
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