JPMorgan Mimics The Goldman Sachs View Of An Improving Commodity Outlook

The too-big-to-fail banks have been short commodities for two years.  This is a significant reversal.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2013/07/02/jp-morgan-mimics-the-goldman-sachs-view-of-an-improving-commodity-outlook/

Goldman Sach’s views were reported here last week with the key comment being: “We are not forecasting a return to expansion, but we believe the sector is starting to look interesting.”

JP Morgan’s view which reached clients this week represent an increase in the optimism noting that its new-found enthusiasm represents its first “overweight” call on commodities since 2010.

“Though we may be a little early, we do not think we are very early,” JP Morgan said. “We would rather be premature in our pretend portfolio than you be late in your real portfolio.”

Like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan argues that most commodities have fallen far enough and for long enough to force involuntary production cuts.

JP Morgan said it had recommended an underweight position in commodities as an asset class in November, 2011, but that view had changed.

“We move to recommend a net long, overweight exposure for institutional investors (in commodities) for the first time in more than two years,” JP Morgan said.