Friday, July 27, 2012

Zynga "analysts"

Zynga shares tanked 40% earlier this week after disappointing earnings, revenues and bookings.  21 Wall Street analysts follow Zynga, whose shares traded above $14 earlier this year, and were trading above $5 Wednesday, before plummeting to below $3 in the after-hours trading session.

Of the 21 analysts listed below, 20 had a Buy or Hold recommendation, with price targets ranging from $17 to $5.  In hindsight, all 20 were not just wrong--but outrageously wrong, presumably costing clients billions of dollars.  A few publicly apologized for their wrong calls.

But wait.  Of the 21 analysts, one got it right, giving a recommendation of "Underweight" for shares of ZNGA.  It must be some genius phenom analyst, right?

Sort of.  The 20 wrong-call analysts had another thing in common:  they were all human.  The lone "analyst" who got it right?  Why, "she" was a computer model: EVA Dimensions.  See for yourself.

Apparently, HAL has a girlfriend who's equally prescient.

As for the "smartest guys in the room" (and they are all guys), I'm sure their performance for analyzing Facebook will undoubtedly be scintillating.

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