Friday, February 12, 2010

This time it's different...

http://usawatchdog.com/this-time-is-different-it%E2%80%99s-global/
Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart do a great job of researching various financial meltdowns in places like South America, Asia, Europe and the U.S. In every crisis, no matter where it took place in the last 8 centuries, people thought a big debt buildup could not end badly. The authors say “arrogance and ignorance” always pave the way to financial hell, no matter what country or what century.

The news gets worse because just about every other industrialized country in the world is facing record deficits and liabilities. Those countries will also print money to pay off debt.

Sovereign debt is being called into question with talk of national defaults on a scale unheard of before. Just this week, economist Dr. Mark Faber said, “…I am not interested in government or sovereign debt because all governments will eventually default, including the U.S.” Faber thinks governments will default, in part, by printing money to pay for their liabilities and debt. That prediction spells I-N-F-L-A-T-I-O-N on a global level. It is no surprise that Dr. Faber thinks gold will continue to outperform stocks.

So, the things that got us in this financial crisis are no different than the things that caused other financial meltdowns throughout history. I think what is different this time is the size of the debt buildup. It is on a scale never before seen in human history. Debt is overwhelming individuals, corporations and countries. This global debt will likely produce the biggest financial meltdown in history, deserving of the Volker expression “mother of all financial crises.”

2 comments:

  1. I'm interested in the historic analysis of when gold moves from the uncorrelated commodity stage to becoming monetized. With the scope of the current crisis, I think that question is very relevant.

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  2. On a qualitative basis, gold becomes a replacement for a currency (i.e. transitions from commodity status to monetary store of value) when there is a (massive) loss of confidence in the paper currency. I don't think you can quantify with a metric when that tipping point occurs, because then herd behavior takes over.

    As for a hyperinflationary depression, the tipping point is when the government deficit reaches 40% of its expenditures.

    http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2009/10/tipping-point-for-hyperinflation.html

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