Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan", who predicted the credit bubble and financial crisis in 2007, says the US Treasury bond market is the next to burst. I couldn't agree more, and have been blogging about this for over a year. Who in their right mind would lend money to a broke US government, tying their money up for 30 years, while earning less than 5% interest for the privilege of taking on that risk?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3E4uC5VIFeo&pos=5
While it's not convenient or prudent for retail investors short US Treasuries in the futures market, the TBT ETF is a possible trade on rising long-dated bond yields. But TBT is not an efficient proxy for shorting Treasury bonds, and tends to underperform in the long-term.
However, home borrowers should lock in a low fixed-rate mortgage to protect themselves from rising yields in the 10-year Treasury bond.
See sidebar for disclaimers.
Disclosure: no position in TBT.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
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