Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Dendreon revisited

Adam Feuerstein, an analyst on the street.com, who was previously bearish on DNDN, offers the following bullish analysis on Dendreon:


http://www.thestreet.com/story/10503521/1/dendreons-gold-whats-next-for-provenge.html


Interesting tidbit on commercialization prospects:


"Most people are modeling Provenge along the lines of Erbitux now," said Gold, referring to the cancer drug from Eli Lilly(LLY Quote) and Bristol-Myers Squibb(BMY Quote). "I think Erbitux costs around $80,000 a year now. ... I'm not saying that's going to be the Provenge price, but that's what analysts and people on the Street have in their heads when thinking about a Provenge price.

"If you use that assumption and say that the market size is 100,000, men then the total commercial market opportunity for Provenge is $8 billion."

Gold on Provenge in Europe:

"We have only had superficial high-level discussions with the Europeans, so the European regulatory strategy and European commercial plans are things that we're really going to look for a partner to oversee. Dendreon is going to focus on the U.S. market. "

Gold on signing a partnership for Provenge or entertaining acquisition offers for the entire company:

"We are committed to commercializing Provenge ourselves in the U.S. and finding a partner outside the U.S. ... If someone puts an offer on the table for the entire company we have a fiduciary responsibility to consider it, but that's not how we're building the company or how we're planning on building the immunotherapy franchise.


I'm thinking a buyout offer of $300 a share seems reasonable. :-)

Even though myself and several of my friends and family bought DNDN in the single digits, I'm already regretting selling some shares at $25.

This is not a recommendation. Do your own diligence. Investing in equities are inherently risky, especially the volatile biotech sector. Good luck to all.

2 comments:

  1. What happened on April 28? DNDN dropped as low as $7.50 but had completely rebounded by the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan, see these earlier blogs I posted on DNDN's mysterious price movement pre-halt:

    http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2009/04/in-couda-wouda-shouda-department.html

    http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2009/04/manipulation.html

    http://gregnguyen.blogspot.com/2009/04/sec-investigating.html

    ReplyDelete