Len Sassaman and Satoshi: a Cypherpunk History

https://leung-btc.medium.com/len-sassaman-and-satoshi-e483c85c2b10

Kraken Releases VIP Crypto Outlook, Forecasts Final Bitcoin Price at End of Bull Market Cycle

I agree with this assessment of Bitcoin.  This is not financial advice.

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/03/06/kraken-releases-vip-crypto-outlook-predicts-final-bitcoin-price-at-end-of-bull-market-cycle/

Inflation and the Destruction of Democracy: The Case of the Weimar Republic

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4224593?seq=1

Swiss Firm Issues Major Warning About QE-To-Infinity, Gold, Silver And The Great Reset

https://kingworldnews.com/qe-to-infinity-gold-silver-and-the-great-reset/

Reddit Preparing To Unleash "World's Biggest Short Squeeze" In Silver

I've been blogging about silver (and gold) price suppression by the bullion banks for 13 years.  The Reddit traders are embarking on a short squeeze of silver.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reddit-preparing-unleash-worlds-biggest-short-squeeze-silver

Proof of Work Consensus Explained

https://twitter.com/i/events/1352265981742120961

So You Missed Today's Epic Move In Gamestop: Here's How To Catch The Next One

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/so-you-missed-todays-epic-move-gamestop-heres-how-catch-next-one

Crypto Whales Quietly Accumulating Ethereum, Says Analytics Firm Santiment

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/01/02/crypto-whales-quietly-accumulating-ethereum-says-analytics-firm-santiment/?fbclid=IwAR3fYWFxCpgusIGmip9wAfRd9v3NPqpW7R-bLTkuGxU-GS3dCMsTaMrSfzM

My Latest 2021 Forecast for Bitcoin

Based on this chart, one forecast for Bitcoin is a price target of $220,000 sometime around August 14, 2021, approximately 240 days after December 17, 2020, when Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high of $20,000.  This presumes an 11X return from the $20,000 breakout, based on previous breakout returns of 38X and 17X, respectively.

Another forecast is based on the halving schedule.  Assuming a 15X return from the $8500 price on the May 11, 2020 halving, a price target of $127,500 will be reached by October 2021, about 17 months after the May 11, 2020 halving.  A 15X return is presumed, as previous post-halvings returns were 96X and 31X in 2013 and 2017, respectively.

With both models, I anticipate a major correction beginning later this year between August and October, with Bitcoin continuing to decline as we enter 2022, before bottoming out late in 2022.  Those mentally unprepared for major drawdowns will experience maximum emotional pain.

There are two strategies to consider:  for traders and non-traders (hodlers).  Traders can try to time markets, identifying peaks and valleys, but that is treacherous territory, given Bitcoin's volatility.  There are also tax implications for trading in and out of positions.

Hodlers on the other hand, never sell, using various dollar cost averaging strategies, of which Buying the Dips is my favorite method of accumulating Bitcoin.  All investors have time preferences, and you must know your own.  True believers in Bitcoin's long-term store of value will migrate toward hodling.

The takeaway is the forecasting business is hazardous enough.  Putting in a timeline along with price targets is even more dangerous.  But Bitcoin's programmable, deterministic mining supply schedule may offer some unique insight not afforded with other asset classes.  The bullish case for Bitcoin also lies in the demand side of the equation.  As institutional money comes rushing in, the case for geometrically higher Bitcoin prices becomes much stronger.

Please see disclaimers in the left side bar.

References:

https://dailyhodl.com/2020/12/31/ark-invest-analyst-says-xrp-freefall-bodes-well-for-bitcoin-heres-how-high-btc-could-go-if-past-is-prologue/

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

Countdown to 2021: Top 10 Mainstream Bitcoin Video's of 2020

This is one of the best videos on Bitcoin for newbies to watch. You don't have to know all the details--you just have to know who's on the bus, and why they're on

M1 and M2 Data Merging

Despite assurances from Fed Chair Powell that the Fed will become more transparent, the central bank is actually becoming more opaque with their monetary policies. They are preparing to gin up the printing press to infinity. We should prepare for this in parallel.

Question this at your peril. Good luck to all of us. #hyperinflation

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-fed-is-about-to-go-weimar-gold-and-silver-will-soar/

Minimum Wage vs. Gold Comparison

This is why too much money printing makes most people poorer. The dollar is getting destroyed and wages aren't keeping up.

Plus ça change: A French Lesson in Monetary Debauchery

Beware the Assignats.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/plus-ca-change-a-french-lesson-in-monetary-debauchery/

Crypto’s Reverse-Minsky Moment

https://omid-malekan.medium.com/cryptos-reverse-minsky-moment-3d744ca9d98f

Bitcoin Surges To New Record High Near $29k Amid "Liquidity Crisis"

Bitcoin is not in a bubble. Applying technical analysis and reading chart patterns alone on Bitcoin will bankrupt you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-surges-new-record-high-near-29k-amid-liquidity-crisis

Former Fed Chair Burns Memo to President Ford

Governments manipulate markets--especially precious metals, to maintain power.  Conspiracy theory?  Think again.

http://www.gata.org/files/ArthurBurnsLetterToPresidentFord-June1975.pdf

Greyerz Just Warned The Death Of Money Will Now Accelerate

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-just-warned-the-death-of-money-will-now-accelerate/

Why Does Bitcoin Have Value?

This is a great article on Bitcoin, much better than my attempt to explain it in 2013.

https://www.aier.org/article/why-does-bitcoin-have-value/?fbclid=IwAR3G-L4zR66YIh2hF7oHuLnegWmoPs-_ygwmVx3FfYi9K--PXLBVJT9bg0Q

Falsifying Stock-to-Flow As a Model of Bitcoin Value

Eigenvalues are not proof-negative that the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model is legit. Translation: the price of Bitcoin will inevitably go higher over time.

https://medium.com/coinmonks/falsifying-stock-to-flow-as-a-model-of-bitcoin-value-b2d9e61f68af

Crypto will be useful but Bitcoin is hard to understand, says SoftBank CEO

In the Misdirection category, the title of these articles about the Softbank CEO implies that he is not a fan of Bitcoin.  However, I have personally seen first-hand one of Softbank's huge Bitcoin mining farms.  It's not in China, not in Japan, but in good ol' Texas (I cannot reveal the exact location).  These mining farms cost north of $150 million to build.  The data centers are clustered over 100 acres.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-will-be-useful-but-bitcoin-is-hard-to-understand-says-softbank-ceo

60% of Bitcoin is Held Long Term as Digital Gold. What About the Rest?

https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/bitcoin-market-data-exchanges-trading

Greyerz – Silver Will Have To Hit $950 To Equal The 1980 High

 

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-silver-will-have-to-hit-950-to-equal-the-1980-high/

THE MADNESS OF CROWDS, THE SANITY OF GOLD

 https://goldswitzerland.com/the-madness-of-crowds-the-sanity-of-gold/

Alasdair Macleod – Look At What The Wealthy Are Doing As Gold & Silver Prices Plunge

https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-look-at-what-the-wealthy-are-doing-as-gold-silver-prices-plunge/

Multiple Banks are Bullish on Gold and Silver

A consensus usually makes me nervous, as groupthink can often be wrong.  But investment and commercial banks are seeing what's painfully obvious:  money printing by central banks is on steroids.

Gold price to surge past $3,000 says Bank of America:  https://www.mining.com/gold-price-to-surge-past-3000-says-bank-of-america/

Goldman Sachs says gold will surge another 20% and hit $2,300 in the next year, driven by rock-bottom interest rates:  https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-raises-12-month-gold-forecast-2300-per-ounce-2020-7-1029437936#

Could Investing in Gold Add a New Dimension to Your Portfolio?  https://www.morganstanley.com/articles/investing-in-gold

UBS ‘very bullish’ on gold as bank expects bullion price to surge higher:  https://www.rt.com/business/501002-gold-price-bullish-ubs/

Silver to Benefit From Global Solar Surge. It’s Time to Buy Again, Goldman Sachs Says.  https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-to-benefit-from-global-solar-surge-its-time-to-buy-again-goldman-sachs-says-51602513824

Biden's 'green stimulus' would send silver soaring to $50: Bank of America:  https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biden-green-new-deal-silver-prices-bank-of-america