My Latest 2021 Forecast for Bitcoin

Based on this chart, one forecast for Bitcoin is a price target of $220,000 sometime around August 14, 2021, approximately 240 days after December 17, 2020, when Bitcoin surpassed its all-time high of $20,000.  This presumes an 11X return from the $20,000 breakout, based on previous breakout returns of 38X and 17X, respectively.

Another forecast is based on the halving schedule.  Assuming a 15X return from the $8500 price on the May 11, 2020 halving, a price target of $127,500 will be reached by October 2021, about 17 months after the May 11, 2020 halving.  A 15X return is presumed, as previous post-halvings returns were 96X and 31X in 2013 and 2017, respectively.

With both models, I anticipate a major correction beginning later this year between August and October, with Bitcoin continuing to decline as we enter 2022, before bottoming out late in 2022.  Those mentally unprepared for major drawdowns will experience maximum emotional pain.

There are two strategies to consider:  for traders and non-traders (hodlers).  Traders can try to time markets, identifying peaks and valleys, but that is treacherous territory, given Bitcoin's volatility.  There are also tax implications for trading in and out of positions.

Hodlers on the other hand, never sell, using various dollar cost averaging strategies, of which Buying the Dips is my favorite method of accumulating Bitcoin.  All investors have time preferences, and you must know your own.  True believers in Bitcoin's long-term store of value will migrate toward hodling.

The takeaway is the forecasting business is hazardous enough.  Putting in a timeline along with price targets is even more dangerous.  But Bitcoin's programmable, deterministic mining supply schedule may offer some unique insight not afforded with other asset classes.  The bullish case for Bitcoin also lies in the demand side of the equation.  As institutional money comes rushing in, the case for geometrically higher Bitcoin prices becomes much stronger.

Please see disclaimers in the left side bar.

References:

https://dailyhodl.com/2020/12/31/ark-invest-analyst-says-xrp-freefall-bodes-well-for-bitcoin-heres-how-high-btc-could-go-if-past-is-prologue/

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769