Trader Who Scored $100 Million Payday Bets Shale Is Dud

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-03/trader-who-scored-100-million-payday-bets-shale-is-dud.html

SHALE AND WALL STREET: WAS THE DECLINE IN NATURAL GAS PRICES ORCHESTRATED?

Technological advances (such as horizontal drilling and fracturing) have enabled natural gas and oil companies to increase production levels.  But since natural resources are finite, the increased productions rates don't automatically increase reserves--and won't extend their production lives.  In other words, production forecasts will proven to be overly optimistic.

Hence, the thesis of a renaissance in US energy production will be short-lived.  Which means our debts and deficits still have to be addressed, because energy production alone will not improve our economy in the long-term, as the cheerleaders insist.  We won't magically grow our economy from increased energy exports--because there isn't as much oil as the pundits have glowingly predicted.

http://shalebubble.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/SWS-report-FINAL.pdf

Documents: Leaked Industry E-Mails and Reports

This is more evidence from geologists who are dampening expectations for shale.  Yes, I do believe we should pursue this and other alternative energy resources--including renewables, but due to more efficient extraction (i.e., horizontal drilling), the life cycles of oil and natural gas fields are much shorter in duration than what the hopium describes.  Peak oil subscribes to the theory that we will not run out of oil--rather, we will run out of easy-to-reach, and cheap oil.

While this "bubble" in shale will end in tears, it is the investments in the technology that will be end up being a disaster.  Prices will remain elevated as long as these forecasts for production remain overly optimistic.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/us/natural-gas-drilling-down-documents-4.html

Contrarian natural gas call

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/taking-stock/a-contrarian-makes-another-call-this-time-natural-gas/article1538686/

Disclosure: long shares of natural gas pipeline MLP's