Why Yield Curve Control by the Fed Will Be Bullish for Gold

https://www.voimagold.com/insight/why-yield-curve-control-by-the-fed-will-be-bullish-for-gold

Citi Bullish On Gold & Silver "Continue To Expect Further Gains"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-17/citi-bullish-gold-silver-continue-expect-further-gains

Spectacularly Bullish Gold News We Haven’t Seen In 3 Years

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/12/11_Spectacularly_Bullish_Gold_News_We_Havent_Seen_In_3_Years.html

Hathaway - Give-Up Phase As Gartman Shorting Gold Is Bullish

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/14_Hathaway_-_Give-Up_Phase_As_Gartman_Shorting_Gold_Is_Bullish.html

Gold and silver snapped up by bullish Indians

http://www.gata.org/node/9918

James Turk - Silver Forming Another Bullish Flag Formation

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/2_James_Turk_-_Silver_Forming_Another_Bullish_Flag_Formation.html

Cup and handle

Click on chart to enlarge.

Gold is forming a potentially bullish cup and handle continuation pattern. It theoretically marks a consolidation period before a breakout to the upside. It is just one of many indicators chartists utilize in technical analysis.

See disclaimers in the side bar.

Disclosure: long physical gold and silver.

Jim Cramer likes ARNA as a speculative play

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?play=1&video=1547554002

Normally, Jim Cramer's endorsement is the kiss of death, since I tend to be a contrarian. He has shunned ARNA before, so I was comfortable being long ARNA. Now that shares of ARNA have almost doubled since the July 1 announcement of the marketing partnership agreement with Eisai, Cramer is jumping on the bandwagon. In all fairness, I don't always disagree with Cramer's assessments; his recommendations are just badly timed, and viewers (largely retail investors) end up buying and selling at the exact inopportune times. His viewing audience on CNBC will perhaps drive shares up some more for the time being, as he has a large following. But be careful, because Cramer's rosy predictions have been known to set up retail investors for a disappointment, as short hedge funds could manipulate shares down after the run up. The smart (and sometimes crooked) money ends up slaughtering the dumb money.

However, with this knowledge, longs might be able to wait and buy the dip. The danger is if the horse has left the barn, and shares run up further on anticipation of positive outcomes at the Advisory Committee review September 16, and of course PDUFA review on October 22. It also provides shorts an opportunity, but I don't recommend retail investors short any stock, because the potential losses are limitless, and unless you're in the know, you will lose money even if you are correct on the direction of the price, but wrong on the timing. Wall Street will whipsaw you out of your position, leaving you with losses, despite being "right."

Overall, shares are ARNA are heavily manipulated, with a huge short interest of up to 27% of the float recently. Expect high volatility. Due to recent bullish news, there is heavy buying pressure, but naked shorts will manipulate the stock in order to cover their shorts and escape intact. If the outcomes are positive, shorts without an escape hatch will get torched.

I've been long ARNA for over a year, with an average entry point above $3, way below the current price per share of $5.26. I can afford to spectate while the share price gyrates, confident in Lorcaserin's FDA approval and commercial launch--that's why I'm long. My initial buy of $5 last year was untimely, but due to my bullish conviction for ARNA, I accumulated more shares on the way down to its lows. In other words, I doubled down, a risky proposition, but potentially highly rewarding. I won't deny there were some nervous moments, but in hindsight, my conviction enabled me to accumulate more shares at lower prices. I was able to overcome fear and doubt, and the price suppression ended up being a gift--everybody loves a sale. Sometimes courage and conviction are rewarded.

I'm long, locked and loaded. I'm not interested in trading in and out of this stock. For those that are, good luck to you.

See disclaimers in the side bar.

Disclosure: long shares of ARNA, short January ARNA put options.

Super gold bulls

Thanks to Dick for finding this golden nugget. I don't agree with all these concepts (or the extreme targets), but I don't necessarily disagree with any of them either. Timing, targets, logic, and actual sequencing of events is not a given, but the case for gold bullishness seems convincing.

http://www.munknee.com/2010/06/why-many-analysts-see-gold-going-as-high-as-10000/

See disclaimers on the side bar.

Disclosure: long gold and silver.

Sears and Kmart offer cash for gold

http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/mining/story.html?id=3040110

Many believe the fact that companies offering customers cash for their gold is a bearish sign--that the price of gold is a bubble about to burst, much like NASDAQ stocks in 2000 and real estate prices in 2006.

I beg to differ. If the smart money are the institutions that trade in gold, and the retail customer is the dumb money, and the smart money is buying while the dumb money is selling gold, the prospects for gold are actually quite bullish. Why would a company buy as much scrap gold as they could if they thought the price of that commodity would decline?

In case there's any dispute in the smart money vs. dumb money debate, guess who's offering less than fifty cents on the dollar for the other party's scrap gold?

JPMorgan analyst bullish on gold

This is rich. According to many conspiracy theorists, JPMorgan has allegedly been suppressing the prices of gold and silver for years. A recent article reports the Department of Justice and CFTC are investigating whether the bank is manipulating silver at the COMEX futures exchange. See previous blog.

Yet, JPMorgan analyst John Bridges is issuing a bullish report on gold. I wonder if he'll be popular at the company Christmas party.

http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-morgan-gold-now-could-face-unlimited-demand-2010-5

Golden Cross

I normally form an investment thesis first to get a macro picture, and identify undervalued/overvalued sectors, before drilling down to individual assets or companies for fundamental analysis (company-specific financials, balance sheets, income statements, insider transactions, valuation metrics). I apply subjective analysis (competitive analysis, market potential, financing environment) and will sometimes perform technical analysis (TA) as a criterion for entry or exit points. Many technicians only perform TA--they call themselves chartists or quants. They believe that price, volume and direction determine future prices. I don't agree with their all-or-nothing approach, but I do pilfer some of their analytical tools.

So while I don't entirely rely on TA indicators, I will use them as confirmations to support my other analysis. One particularly useful TA indicator is the Golden Cross, when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average (e.g., the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average). This is normally bullish.


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp


The opposing Death Cross is normally bearish, and accurately predicted last year's market decline (and one of the reasons I was out of the market).


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

I also track trading volume, both up and down. A big increase in up volume is bullish, as interest is stoked among big institutional buyers. If Fidelity is accumulating shares, that's bullish. If Average Joe Investor is buying odd lots like 55 shares, that's not so bullish (in fact, it's bearish). Likewise, if Fidelity is selling shares in big chunks, it's time to look for the exits, as distribution is taking place. In summary, volume precedes price, both up and down.

So after performing my fundamental and subjective analysis (Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, Swine Flu, clinical trials, timing, etc.), the final piece of my due diligence on HEB was checking the moving averages, among other indicators like volume. Look at the Golden Cross in early May. And look at the subsequent movement in the stock.


http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=heb

This is not a recommendation. Investing is risky and should be approached with caution. Please do your own due diligence.

Gold--due for a pause--or ready to explode again?

I questioned whether gold was due for a pause a couple days ago, as the price of gold kept spiking up, breaking resistance levels. Well, the price shot up again overnight in Asia, BUT the mining shares didn't move much this morning. So I hedged this morning, not selling my positions, instead buying a couple puts, which will profit should ABX correct. Think of it as a cheap form of insurance in case gold pauses--without having to trigger a taxable event from profit-taking.

The price of the mining shares usually lead the actual price of the underlying commodity. In other words, it's gone up too fast and is looking heavy. There's that Physics training kicking in again...:-)

Having said that, I'm still bullish on gold medium- and long-term, as the fundamentals are unimpaired, to borrow a quote from Jim Rogers. But gold mining shares do look a bit tired at these levels. More conservative investors may want to take some profits off the table--a 100% profit in two months is nothing to sneeze at.