Showing posts with label Switzerland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Switzerland. Show all posts

Saturday, January 17, 2015

The balance sheet that ate Switzerland

The Interest Rate Observer's Jim Grant nailed his bullish call for the Swiss Franc to appreciate back in September 19, 2014.  Long call options on the Swissie made a killing.  For the unwashed masses unable to participate in ISDA derivatives, Grant has been pounding the table on gold.


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/balance-sheet-ate-switzerland-james-grant
we venture that the SNB will sooner or later be forced to permit the franc to appreciate and thus to enrich the holders of low-priced, three-year call options on the Swiss/euro exchange rate. It's a long shot, to be sure--the options are cheap for a reason--but we judge that the prospective reward is worth the obvious risk.

More money printing or sub-zero rates may once again set a fire under Swiss house prices, macro-prudential policies notwithstanding. It may ruin the life insurers. At some point, the Swiss National Bank would have to decide whether propping up the export sector is worth the cost. If these circumstances, a bet (and, to be clear, it is very much a bet) on the franc appreciating against the euro might pay. A three-year, at-the-money option on the franc appreciating against the euro is priced at 3.7% of notional today according to Bloomberg. To return to its high of 1.03 francs per euro on Aug. 10, 2011, the franc would appreciate by 17%.

While there is nothing especially exotic about this option, it is available only to institutional investors with an International Swaps and Derivatives Association agreement in place with a too-big-to-fail bank. For readers not so situated, there is always gold, which--in our opinion--the franc is no longer as good as.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Switzerland Will Join Race to Be Trading Hub for China’s Yuan

Notice London, Frankfurt, and Switzerland have joined the race to become the hub for trading of the Chinese Yuan.  So has Toronto.  The notable absence is New York, who normally aspires to be the trading center of any asset class.  Given the Yuan will be a likely challenger to the USDollar as a global reserve currency, does this surprise anybody?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-06/switzerland-will-join-race-to-be-trading-hub-for-china-s-yuan.html

Monday, July 1, 2013

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Epiphanies from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/08/epiphanies_from_nassim_nicholas_taleb
The most stable country in the history of mankind, and probably the most boring, by the way, is Switzerland. It's not even a city-state environment; it's a municipal state. Most decisions are made at the local level, which allows for distributed errors that don't adversely affect the wider system. Meanwhile, people want a united Europe, more alignment, and look at the problems. The solution is right in the middle of Europe -- Switzerland. It's not united! It doesn't have a Brussels! It doesn't need one.

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Switzerland defies US, EU ban on Iran oil

US economic sanctions against Iran may be hampering Iran's economy as intended, but they are also backfiring on the US.  Blockading Switzerland from global capital markets will prove to be misguided (duh!).  Given Zurich's money center status, it would be analogous to trying to remove Wimbledon from the UK.


http://presstv.com/detail/2012/07/06/249681/switzerland-defies-us-eu-ban-on-iran-oil/

Friday, December 26, 2008

The latest outsourcing business to hit the US...

The US Treasury is busy printing so many US Dollars that they have outsourced it to printers in Switzerland. That's right--our government is so intent on printing trillions of dollars that they are wearing out their printing presses, and have had to resort to offshoring the printing process. Hence, the ultimate conundrum: "Helicopter" Bern Bernanke and fellow cohort Hank "Machine Gun" Paulson have repeatedly preached about a strong US Dollar. Yet, their actions for months have been completely undermining the strength of our currency.

This indiscriminate and unconscionable monetary easing dwarfs any on record--it is essentially criminal.

Meanwhile, my long gold and long yen positions are playing out as predicted, so my portfolio is profiting handsomely. But it is bittersweet, as we will experience the second act of post-1990 Japan. Japan's Nikkei stock market index stood at 39,000 in 1990. In 2008, it stands at 9,000.

The next bubble to burst are Treasury Bonds. The 30-year maturities are yielding 2.6%. Investors by the droves are basically saying, "Mr. U.S. Government, I know your currency is tanking by the day, I know you are printing dollars like there is no tomorrow, I know your solvency is at risk, I know your balance sheet is deteriorating with trillions of debt, and I know you have to chase good money after bad money (the bailout mantra), and yeah, I know you've been beaten down. But can you please hold on to my money for 30 years, and pay me 2.6%, for the privilege?"

Once investors wake up to the reality that their allegedly "safe" investments aren't so credit-worthy anymore, they will demand higher rates of return in exchange for taking on the additional risk. And when that happens, the Treasury Bond bubble will burst, just like the residential sub-prime mortgage bubble burst. The Fed eased too much, creating a real estate bubble after the tech bubble burst. They then raised rates 17 times, bursting the real estate market. Now they are easing rates to 0%, creating another bubble--this time US Treasuries.

Is anybody seeing a pattern here?