This is one of the best videos on Bitcoin for newbies to watch. You don't have to know all the details--you just have to know who's on the bus, and why they're on
Thursday, December 31, 2020
M1 and M2 Data Merging
Despite assurances from Fed Chair Powell that the Fed will become more transparent, the central bank is actually becoming more opaque with their monetary policies. They are preparing to gin up the printing press to infinity. We should prepare for this in parallel.
Question this at your peril. Good luck to all of us. #hyperinflation
Minimum Wage vs. Gold Comparison
This is why too much money printing makes most people poorer. The dollar is getting destroyed and wages aren't keeping up.
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
Bitcoin Surges To New Record High Near $29k Amid "Liquidity Crisis"
Bitcoin is not in a bubble. Applying technical analysis and reading chart patterns alone on Bitcoin will bankrupt you.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-surges-new-record-high-near-29k-amid-liquidity-crisis
Sunday, December 27, 2020
Former Fed Chair Burns Memo to President Ford
Governments manipulate markets--especially precious metals, to maintain power. Conspiracy theory? Think again.
http://www.gata.org/files/ArthurBurnsLetterToPresidentFord-June1975.pdf
Monday, December 14, 2020
Saturday, December 5, 2020
Why Does Bitcoin Have Value?
This is a great article on Bitcoin, much better than my attempt to explain it in 2013.
Friday, November 27, 2020
Falsifying Stock-to-Flow As a Model of Bitcoin Value
Eigenvalues are not proof-negative that the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model is legit. Translation: the price of Bitcoin will inevitably go higher over time.
https://medium.com/coinmonks/falsifying-stock-to-flow-as-a-model-of-bitcoin-value-b2d9e61f68af
Tuesday, November 24, 2020
Crypto will be useful but Bitcoin is hard to understand, says SoftBank CEO
In the Misdirection category, the title of these articles about the Softbank CEO implies that he is not a fan of Bitcoin. However, I have personally seen first-hand one of Softbank's huge Bitcoin mining farms. It's not in China, not in Japan, but in good ol' Texas (I cannot reveal the exact location). These mining farms cost north of $150 million to build. The data centers are clustered over 100 acres.
Friday, November 20, 2020
Sunday, November 15, 2020
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Multiple Banks are Bullish on Gold and Silver
A consensus usually makes me nervous, as groupthink can often be wrong. But investment and commercial banks are seeing what's painfully obvious: money printing by central banks is on steroids.
Gold price to surge past $3,000 says Bank of America: https://www.mining.com/gold-price-to-surge-past-3000-says-bank-of-america/
Goldman Sachs says gold will surge another 20% and hit $2,300 in the next year, driven by rock-bottom interest rates: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/goldman-sachs-raises-12-month-gold-forecast-2300-per-ounce-2020-7-1029437936#
Could Investing in Gold Add a New Dimension to Your Portfolio? https://www.morganstanley.com/articles/investing-in-gold
UBS ‘very bullish’ on gold as bank expects bullion price to surge higher: https://www.rt.com/business/501002-gold-price-bullish-ubs/
Silver to Benefit From Global Solar Surge. It’s Time to Buy Again, Goldman Sachs Says. https://www.barrons.com/articles/silver-to-benefit-from-global-solar-surge-its-time-to-buy-again-goldman-sachs-says-51602513824
Biden's 'green stimulus' would send silver soaring to $50: Bank of America: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/biden-green-new-deal-silver-prices-bank-of-america
Thursday, September 3, 2020
Jobs Friday (and Its Effect on Gold and Silver)
I posted this on September 1, 2017 regarding "jobs Friday." It's still relevant today, even as gold and silver plummet on the Thursday before Jobs Friday tomorrow.
My letter to clients:
I posted this two days ago on Facebook and LinkedIn, and it's a shared memory from September 1, 2017.
Shorting the precious metals complex worked 80% of the time on Jobs Friday.
"Jobs reports came out today, specifically nonfarm payrolls. Which probably means the manipulators are going to monkey-hammer gold and silver down. And if they don't, that means they've lost control of the physical markets, which will happen at some point. Probably not today tho. The conventional wisdom is if the jobs picture is rosy, that means the economy is healthy which results in a strong dollar. Hence, gold should drop. The real reason is it gives the bullion bank cartel an opportunity to collusively plummet gold by swarming the COMEX exchange with sell orders. If a trade is that predictable, you know the market is rigged."
Today is Thursday, September 3, 2020, and gold and silver are already hammered. Could the Big Shorts be front-running the normal Jobs Friday bear raid? Perhaps, so I went long today, and looking to go long more tomorrow if further drops occur. BTFD.
Again, gold and silver usually get hammered on the first Friday of every month by the Big Shorts who manipulate the futures and spot markets. It's a collusive group who are being prosecuted by the Department of Justice, and in some cases, under RICO statutes. The DOJ has declared the JPMorgan metals trading desk a "criminal enterprise" in other words. Other banks have also been paying fines and "cooperating" with the DOJ, presumably to avoid jail time. THIS IS NO LONGER CONSPIRACY THEORY, BUT FACT.
These investigations are targeting mid- and low-level traders spoofing markets. They really don't address the larger issues: these bullion banks are acting on behalf of the Fed and other central banks to surreptitiously suppress gold and silver prices. These manipulations are coming from the top of the food chain. It is also happening in the Bitcoin COMEX futures market, as the former CFTC publicly admitted. We definitely live in strange (and treacherous) times.
Remember: history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. This plunge in prices from the precious metals complex occurs approximately 80% of the time, so it is not random. If folks are catching on and front running the move, the trade may lose its effectiveness on Jobs Friday and is now occurring the day before. In any case, today and tomorrow may be good opportunities to add to your long positions.
Good luck to all!
Greg
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Monday, August 24, 2020
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Monday, August 17, 2020
Thursday, August 13, 2020
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
Sunday, July 26, 2020
When to Exit Precious Metals Equities
When mining shares reach a P/E of 50, sell and rotate into utilities, which could be yielding 15%.
Precious metals mining equities are the last to enter into a bull market, and utilities are the first to enter into the next cycle.
Precious metals mining equities are the last to enter into a bull market, and utilities are the first to enter into the next cycle.
Saturday, July 25, 2020
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
Tuesday, June 23, 2020
Saturday, June 20, 2020
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Saturday, June 13, 2020
Friday, June 12, 2020
FT's John Dizard: The global gold market is breaking up
http://www.gata.org/node/20216
I didn't know this.
I didn't know this.
Vietnam is among the top three gold trading countries, with 60 to 70 tonnes per year, and only behind Thailand and Indonesia with 80 to 90 tonnes per year. Over the years Vietnamese have imported nearly 850 tonnes of gold.
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Around the Block #4: on the recent market crash and Bitcoin’s value proposition
With any major crash, the levered small speculators end up liquidating their holdings to the strong hands (whales) who are buying at a huge discount. This certainly happened with physical gold and silver (I was in the epicenter of that space as large orders poured in), and it happened on Black Thursday with Bitcoin.
https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd
https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Friday, May 15, 2020
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Friday, May 8, 2020
Alasdair Macleod – Global Fiat Currencies Will Burn While Gold & Silver Skyrocket
When fiat currencies fail, Bitcoin and gold are superb hedges. Denominated in dollars, both alternative currencies will perform well. But what happens when fiat collapses all the way to zero? What will the price of Bitcoin be, if it no longer will be priced in dollars?
Eventually, Bitcoin will be priced in gold. Because of its deflationary cap of 21 million, Bitcoin would probably still rise relative to gold, but with far less volatility.
https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-global-fiat-currencies-will-burn-while-gold-silver-skyrocket/
Eventually, Bitcoin will be priced in gold. Because of its deflationary cap of 21 million, Bitcoin would probably still rise relative to gold, but with far less volatility.
https://kingworldnews.com/alasdair-macleod-global-fiat-currencies-will-burn-while-gold-silver-skyrocket/
Monday, April 27, 2020
What Crash?? Buy Tankers…
I put in these trades April 1. It's done well.
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/03/13/ignore-the-market-crash-and-buy-tankers/
Here's a video explaining the play on tankers:
https://www.realvision.com/opportunity-in-the-covid-crude-oil-contango?utm_source=contributor&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=43916_HK_GH_CONT_W1_LINK
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2020/03/13/ignore-the-market-crash-and-buy-tankers/
Here's a video explaining the play on tankers:
https://www.realvision.com/opportunity-in-the-covid-crude-oil-contango?utm_source=contributor&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=43916_HK_GH_CONT_W1_LINK
Sunday, April 12, 2020
The Fed's Cure Risks Being Worse Than the Disease
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-27/federal-reserve-s-financial-cure-risks-being-worse-than-disease
The economic debate of the day centers on whether the cure of an economic shutdown is worse than the disease of the virus. Similarly, we need to ask if the cure of the Federal Reserve getting so deeply into corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, commercial paper, and exchange-traded funds is worse than the disease seizing financial markets. It may be.
In just these past few weeks, the Fed has cut rates by 150 basis points to near zero and run through its entire 2008 crisis handbook. That wasn’t enough to calm markets, though — so the central bank also announced $1 trillion a day in repurchase agreements and unlimited quantitative easing, which includes a hard-to-understand $625 billion of bond buying a week going forward. At this rate, the Fed will own two-thirds of the Treasury market in a year.
But it’s the alphabet soup of new programs that deserve
special consideration, as they could have profound long-term
consequences for the functioning of the Fed and the allocation of
capital in financial markets. Specifically, these are:
So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.
In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.
This scheme essentially merges the Fed and Treasury into one organization. So, meet your new Fed chairman, Donald J. Trump.
In 2008 when something similar was done, it was on a smaller scale. Since few understood it, the Bush and Obama administrations ceded total control of those acronym programs to then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He unwound them at the first available opportunity. But now, 12 years later, we have a much better understanding of how they work. And we have a president who has made it very clear how displeased he is that central bankers haven’t used their considerable power to force the Dow Jones Industrial Average at least 10,000 points higher, something he has complained about many times before the pandemic hit.
When the Fed was rightly alarmed by the current dysfunction in the fixed-income markets, they felt they needed to act. This was the correct thought. But, to get the authority to stabilize these “private” markets, central bankers needed the Treasury to agree to nationalize (own) them so they could provide the funds to do it.
In effect, the Fed is giving the Treasury access to its printing press. This means that, in the extreme, the administration would be free to use its control, not the Fed’s control, of these SPVs to instruct the Fed to print more money so it could buy securities and hand out loans in an effort to ramp financial markets higher going into the election. Why stop there? Should Trump win re-election, he could try to use these SPVs to get those 10,000 Dow Jones points he feels the Fed has denied everyone.
If these acronym programs were abused as I describe, they might indeed force markets higher than valuation warrants. But it would come with a heavy price. Investors would be deprived of the necessary market signals that freely traded capital markets offer to aid in the efficient allocation of capital. Malinvestment would be rampant. It also could force private sector players to leave as the government’s heavy hand makes operating in “controlled” markets uneconomic. This has already occurred in the U.S. federal funds market and the government bond market in Japan.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell needs to tread carefully indeed to ensure his cure isn’t worse than the disease.
The economic debate of the day centers on whether the cure of an economic shutdown is worse than the disease of the virus. Similarly, we need to ask if the cure of the Federal Reserve getting so deeply into corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, commercial paper, and exchange-traded funds is worse than the disease seizing financial markets. It may be.
In just these past few weeks, the Fed has cut rates by 150 basis points to near zero and run through its entire 2008 crisis handbook. That wasn’t enough to calm markets, though — so the central bank also announced $1 trillion a day in repurchase agreements and unlimited quantitative easing, which includes a hard-to-understand $625 billion of bond buying a week going forward. At this rate, the Fed will own two-thirds of the Treasury market in a year.
- CPFF (Commercial Paper Funding Facility) – buying commercial paper from the issuer.
- PMCCF (Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility) – buying corporate bonds from the issuer.
- TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) – funding backstop for asset-backed securities.
- SMCCF (Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility) – buying corporate bonds and bond ETFs in the secondary market.
- MSBLP (Main Street Business Lending Program) – Details are to come, but it will lend to eligible small and medium-size businesses, complementing efforts by the Small Business Association.
So how can they do this? The Fed will finance a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each acronym to conduct these operations. The Treasury, using the Exchange Stabilization Fund, will make an equity investment in each SPV and be in a “first loss” position. What does this mean? In essence, the Treasury, not the Fed, is buying all these securities and backstopping of loans; the Fed is acting as banker and providing financing. The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.
In other words, the federal government is nationalizing large swaths of the financial markets. The Fed is providing the money to do it. BlackRock will be doing the trades.
This scheme essentially merges the Fed and Treasury into one organization. So, meet your new Fed chairman, Donald J. Trump.
In 2008 when something similar was done, it was on a smaller scale. Since few understood it, the Bush and Obama administrations ceded total control of those acronym programs to then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He unwound them at the first available opportunity. But now, 12 years later, we have a much better understanding of how they work. And we have a president who has made it very clear how displeased he is that central bankers haven’t used their considerable power to force the Dow Jones Industrial Average at least 10,000 points higher, something he has complained about many times before the pandemic hit.
When the Fed was rightly alarmed by the current dysfunction in the fixed-income markets, they felt they needed to act. This was the correct thought. But, to get the authority to stabilize these “private” markets, central bankers needed the Treasury to agree to nationalize (own) them so they could provide the funds to do it.
In effect, the Fed is giving the Treasury access to its printing press. This means that, in the extreme, the administration would be free to use its control, not the Fed’s control, of these SPVs to instruct the Fed to print more money so it could buy securities and hand out loans in an effort to ramp financial markets higher going into the election. Why stop there? Should Trump win re-election, he could try to use these SPVs to get those 10,000 Dow Jones points he feels the Fed has denied everyone.
If these acronym programs were abused as I describe, they might indeed force markets higher than valuation warrants. But it would come with a heavy price. Investors would be deprived of the necessary market signals that freely traded capital markets offer to aid in the efficient allocation of capital. Malinvestment would be rampant. It also could force private sector players to leave as the government’s heavy hand makes operating in “controlled” markets uneconomic. This has already occurred in the U.S. federal funds market and the government bond market in Japan.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell needs to tread carefully indeed to ensure his cure isn’t worse than the disease.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
Supplies Are Starting To Get Really Tight Nationwide As Food Distribution Systems Break Down
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/supplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down
https://twitter.com/andrewrush/status/1244657465859457024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1244657465859457024&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fendoftheamericandream.com%2Farchives%2Fsupplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down
https://twitter.com/andrewrush/status/1244657465859457024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1244657465859457024&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fendoftheamericandream.com%2Farchives%2Fsupplies-are-starting-to-get-really-tight-nationwide-as-food-distribution-systems-break-down
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Thursday, March 26, 2020
Monday, March 23, 2020
BREAKING: Egon von Greyerz Just Warned Swiss Refiners Have Halted Gold Production!
https://kingworldnews.com/breaking-egon-von-greyerz-just-warned-swiss-gold-refiners-have-ceased-production/
We must remember that 70% of all gold bars are produced in Switzerland and that the 3 biggest refiners are in Ticino where the local government has ordered non-essential factories to close.
The likely outcome of gold production stopping should be a much higher gold price on Monday. But we obviously don’t know if the BIS and the bullion banks will hit the gold market with $ billions of paper gold. Whatever they do in the short run, the market will soon discover that all this paper gold is worthless.
The gold mining stocks are also likely to suffer until the situation is clarified since they have lost their biggest buyers.
Please remember that the principal reason to hold physical metals is for insurance and wealth preservation.
Friday, March 13, 2020
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
Saturday, January 11, 2020
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