Let's say a retiree has been blessed, disciplined, and prudent enough to
save $1 million for their retirement. In a savings account earning
0.1%, the retiree's annual income is $1,000. So the solution is to put
it in the safety of bonds, right? Wrong. If yields rise, bond prices
drop. So the bond holder not only doesn't make much, he/she will
actually lose some of the principal. Besides, at nearly zero percent,
rates can only go up.
How about stocks? It's been soaring
to record highs, right? Well, what if they flatten, or God forbid,
equities drop? 10%? 60% (like the S&P500 did from 2007-2009), or
80% (like the NASDAQ did from 2000-2003)? What then? And oh, by the
way, if interest rates rise materially, bond prices will drop, but
equities will plummet. The Fed knows this. That's why they pin down
yields on the short end of the curve. But the bond vigilantes will
eventually demand higher yields at the long end, because frankly, the US
Treasury is insolvent and will NEVER be able to pay off its
obligations.
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
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