Against a backdrop of negative real bond yields, I am bewildered that investors (lenders) are pouring into US Treasury bonds in a (perceived) flight to safety. To me, this flight is misguided, and it guarantees destruction of portfolios. In other words, the herd will be slaughtered--again.
Here's a Keynes quote: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
In essence, forecasts of a bond market collapse are early--not wrong. See the NASDAQ bubble bursting in 2000. See the subprime mortgage bond market bubble in 2007.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/treasury-yields-below-inflation-may-last-years-chart-of-the-day.html
Saturday, December 15, 2012
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