Monday, June 21, 2010

Gold is no longer a fringe asset

http://www.pinnacledigest.com/blog/fastfoot/gold-no-longer-fringe-now-mainstream?#comment-47178

Here's something on price from Ian McAvity, a longtime and respected gold market watcher, in his latest Deliberations on World Markets newsletter: "Gold is about 50 percent above (its) 1980 peak, while total U.S. credit market debt has increased 12-fold and the S&P 500 is about 10X where it was in 1980... it would take a rush to $5,479 to replicate the 1980 peak (I repeat that is not a forecast, it's a technical observation from an overlay of the cycle of the 1970s on the cycle from 2001) Simply put, any talk of a gold bubble is utter nonsense... While the markets toss the inflation/deflation debate back and forth, I believe the key driver of gold is monetary."

And for an even bigger number, I turn to Barry Cooper at CIBC in Toronto. The chart above shows the relationship of the gold price and U.S. government debt. He says that if somehow a new gold standard were to be created, the gold price would have to be $46,000 per ounce if all U.S. government debt had to be backed by bullion. We don't believe that a Bretton Woods II agreement is coming, but for those strict monetarists who support a return to the gold standard, this estimate provides one view on how it could impact gold.

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