Thursday, November 26, 2009

Dennis Gartman on CNBC

Dennis Gartman, the respected commodities expert who pens the widely read "The Gartman Letter", and who can been seen on CNBC every day, called a top on gold at $930. When gold surged to $1050, he said he was still bearish on gold, yet he had reversed course on his own trade, and had gone long due to technical momentum (presumably after losing a ton of money shorting gold at $930). He also declared gold was in a "bubble"--even as he confessed he had gone long--and that he just didn't understand why gold had rallied so high and so fast. Today, in overseas trading, while America gluttons on turkey and dressing, gold is threatening $1200.

So this is a guy who can barely admit he was totally wrong on gold, costing followers millions of dollars, and now he can glibly declare gold is in "bubble" status--without even looking at the fundamentals of not just the recent rally, but of a DECADE-LONG BULL MARKET IN GOLD?

What about US Treasury bonds? The trillions of IOU's being issued by an insolvent government will come due at some point, and that is not a bubble? What if the creditors of that debt reject taking on that risk at yields of 3%, and demand 15% before even considering buying more Treasuries? What about that bubble? Rising interest rates will tank bond values, much like they did in the early 80's when inflation and deficit spending were out of control. Deficits are much worse today--in the trillions, with a "t".

And what if the US government itself defaults on its borrowings, unable to fund even the interest on that debt? What will happen to the asset values of hard commodities? How high could gold or oil climb in dollars?

Yes, the Fed's quantitative easing will yet again create asset bubbles. But as usual, the investing public will get fleeced again because the bankers are pointing at the wrong "bubble."

No comments:

Post a Comment