Sunday, February 1, 2009
Are stocks really cheap?
Many analysts believe the equities market is cheap, after a 40% correction from 2007 highs, based on valuation metrics like dividend yields. Mark Lundeen gathered this chart on dividend yields that goes back to the pre-Great Depression era:
Historically, stocks are "cheap" when dividend yields rise above 6%, and are considered expensive when yields dip below 3%. In fact, at the Depression lows, stocks yielded 10.38%. Today, the DJIA sits at 8,000, yielding 4.06%.
So the question begs: are stocks cheap? That depends--compared to last year, yes. But historically, stocks are not cheap. At a 6% yield, the DJIA would be priced at 5235. At 10% yield...well, let's not go there--it gets really ugly.
The bad news is that companies are either reducing or eliminating their dividends, so the aforementioned figures would be even lower. Let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.
Labels:
dividend yield,
Dow Jones,
equities,
valuation
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