Friday, January 16, 2009

Oversold

Even tho I think financials have terrible fundamentals (too much toxic debt), I flipped Citigroup today for a one-day round trip profit of 20%. Regional banks should do okay, as they didn't leverage up on sub-prime mortgage-backed securities, like the big money center banks. But the landscape has changed for partially nationalized banks like JPMorgan Chase, B of A, Citi, and Goldman Sachs. So even tho I went against my investment principles, I repeated my flip of Morgan Stanley last quarter, doubling my money on that trade. The panic selling of Citi shares created an oversold condition, so I pounced. Probably not smart, but I'd rather be lucky than good.

I also nibbled at oil at $34/barrel with the ETF DXO, which leverages crude oil moves. No one is bullish on oil, so my contrarian instincts compelled me to dive in. This is a short-term trade for me, and if oil moves to my favor, I'll take profits. If oil keeps declining, I'll again go against my principles, sitting on it for however many months or years it takes for oil to rebound--I won't put in any stop losses. Oil is still in a secular bull market, so time is on my side.

No comments:

Post a Comment