Monday, December 31, 2012
Japan lashes out over depreciating dollar and euro
Anybody still have doubts about whether a currency war of devaluation isn't taking place?
http://www.gata.org/node/12080
http://www.gata.org/node/12080
Labels:
Abe,
Aso,
currency war,
devaluation,
dollar,
euro,
Japan,
yen
Sunday, December 30, 2012
The Keynesian Legacy Unravels
http://www.economicnoise.com/2012/12/28/the-keynesian-legacy-unravels/
Ideology is powerful, capable of masking unpleasant facts. Whether we recognize it or not, we are all slaves to ideology.Economists are no different in that regard than other people. They hold preconceived ideas which affect the interpretation of data and facts. In the extreme, ideology is capable of blocking the recognition of contradictory information, effectively blinding a person to valuable evidence.Keynesian economists believe, regardless of logic and data, that economies can be managed from the top down. In their world, economies are little different than machines. Change some inputs here, speed them up over there, add some lubrication, etc. and the machine will respond in the fashion desired. Output can be “managed” to whatever level needed purely by adjusting the parts of the machine.Austrian economists on the other hand do not see a machine. They see millions of individuals all making decisions to improve their own lives. The price system provides the coordination among these separate pieces, performing a function no human, supercomputer or government could ever accomplish. For Austrians, economics is a bottom up approach. To effect change, you must change the incentives and disincentives that individual decision makers are afforded.
Quite simply, if government were to offer constructive ideas and options, there would be no need for coercion and violence on its part to force people into behavior they are uninterested in.
Likewise, if government would leave the economy alone rather than continue to intervene to prevent necessary corrections, the economy would recover rather quickly and return to its normal growth path. But that is not what activist government does and it is the reason why this Great Recession drags on and on. In 2004, before the Great Recession hit, two economists discussed the Great Depression and why it lasted so long. Not surprisingly, they concluded that government had made matters worse.
Two UCLA economists say they have figured out why the Great Depression dragged on for almost 15 years, and they blame a suspect previously thought to be beyond reproach: President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
After scrutinizing Roosevelt’s record for four years, Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian conclude in a new study that New Deal policies signed into law 71 years ago thwarted economic recovery for seven long years.
“Why the Great Depression lasted so long has always been a great mystery, and because we never really knew the reason, we have always worried whether we would have another 10- to 15-year economic slump,” said Ohanian, vice chair of UCLA’s Department of Economics. “We found that a relapse isn’t likely unless lawmakers gum up a recovery with ill-conceived stimulus policies.”
These findings would not surprise anyone of the Austrian persuasion. Nor would they register with anyone of the Keynesian persuasion which includes most Washington policy makers. As a result these (and many other findings with similar conclusions) were ignored by policymakers and we are repeating the mistakes of the Great Depression.
The reasons we are still in this deep recession are the same ones that accounted for the Great Depression lasting as long. If we continue on the same intervention / stimulus path, economic conditions will only deteriorate from here. Japan has been in their economic malaise for more than two decades. The US cannot last that long before falling into what history will call The Greater Decession.
Labels:
Austrian,
Keynesian legacy,
unravels
Saturday, December 29, 2012
A Development In The Controversial 'Lagarde List' Case Is Causing An Uproar In Greece Today
This is what happens in class warfare. As in the US, Greece's upper 1% is under attack. This is further evidence that no one wins when the pie is shrinking, and the war between classes will intensify. This includes wars between poor vs. rich, young vs. old, non-working vs. working, pensioners vs. taxpayers, takers vs. makers.
http://www.businessinsider.com/papaconstantinou-lagarde-list-allegation-2012-12
http://www.businessinsider.com/papaconstantinou-lagarde-list-allegation-2012-12
Labels:
Greece,
Lagarde list
Ordinary Folks Losing Faith In Stocks
With investor sentiment so bearish, a contrarian might be tempted to buy equities. However, looking at the debt problems and their resultant onerous costs, economies in the developed world will be dragged down by the dampening effects of servicing that debt. Markets peak and bottom out, and despite historically low interest rates as far as the eye can see, it might be too early to be calling a bottom in equities.
The structural problems in the global financial system have not been resolved--in fact they've grown larger due to the grotesque liquidity injections by central banks worldwide. Central bankers are attempting to solve an insolvency problem with more liquidity--mistakenly believing this economic malaise is cyclical. The banking system and sovereign governments are weighed down by debt, and issuing more debt will only end in tears.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=168146046
The structural problems in the global financial system have not been resolved--in fact they've grown larger due to the grotesque liquidity injections by central banks worldwide. Central bankers are attempting to solve an insolvency problem with more liquidity--mistakenly believing this economic malaise is cyclical. The banking system and sovereign governments are weighed down by debt, and issuing more debt will only end in tears.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=168146046
Labels:
losing faith in stocks,
ordinary folks
Friday, December 28, 2012
2013 - Financial Destruction & How Gold & Silver Will Perform
Egon von Greyerz has a more dystopian view of financial markets than I do, if that's possible. Will he be proven right? No one knows for sure, but the monetary history of fiat currencies is certainly on his side. My take is he will be proven right--even if his prognostications may be early. My timeline for a currency collapse is within the 2013 - 2015 time frame, based on historical gold bull market cycles. Of course, governments and central bankers can delay reality a long time, so that time line could be extended. But eventually government largesse has its unintended consequences.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/28_2013_-_Financial_Destruction_%26_How_Gold_%26_Silver_Will_Perform.html
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/28_2013_-_Financial_Destruction_%26_How_Gold_%26_Silver_Will_Perform.html
Labels:
financial destruction,
gold and silver
Milk, grocery prices on the rise if Congress ignores farm bill
Speaking of higher prices...expect higher milk prices if the farm bill isn't passed. Yet, the Fed insists inflation is benign.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57560791/milk-grocery-prices-on-the-rise-if-congress-ignores-farm-bill/?pageNum=2
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57560791/milk-grocery-prices-on-the-rise-if-congress-ignores-farm-bill/?pageNum=2
Mississippi River Recedes Faster Than Expected, Shippers Say
If tugboats are shut down on the Mississippi River due to low river levels, expect high prices--on just about everything.
http://www.agweb.com/article/mississippi_river_recedes_faster_than_expected_shippers_say/
http://www.agweb.com/article/mississippi_river_recedes_faster_than_expected_shippers_say/
Labels:
low water levels,
Mississippi River,
recedes,
shippers,
tugboats
Thursday, December 27, 2012
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