Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Unintended consequences of a strong dollar

According to the Austrian school of economists, a strong currency is beneficial, as it represents strength in an economy, and purchasing power is sustained.

But if the dollar continues to gain strength, relative to the ruble, Chinese yuan, Canadian dollar, and euro, it will likely hurt US exports, which is generally negative for equities.  If the dollar continues to gain strength as a safe haven and also in anticipation of QE ending, expect the market rally to reverse.

Forward thinkers will understand the Fed can't let this happen on their watch, so they will probably resume printing more dollars, but probably masqueraded in some other official-sounding nomenclature, because the populace is catching on to the fact that QE is merely debt monetization (i.e. legalized counterfeiting).

With markets collapsing, I just don't see how the Fed won't step in.  They will intervene with more "stimulus", at which point precious metals will rally again.  Of course, we don't want to be around when the final collapse occurs, as no amount of paper will save a currency so debauched that all confidence in it has evaporated.

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