Thursday, September 17, 2009

Gold chart

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

This point and figure chart shows support at $950/oz., with the next level of support at $850/oz, should the price of gold correct below $950. Expect retracement higher if we get a test of these support levels.

However, should we consolidate for a few weeks at current levels, expect another move higher, with little resistance, as we are in uncharted all-time highs, at least in terms of a a weakened dollar.

In fact, gold is inversely correlated to the US Dollar. As long as market complacency continues (as measured by a low Volatility Index), equities will continue to rise as investors are willing to take on more risk. This would be bearish for US Treasury bonds--and the US Dollar, which would be bullish for gold. However, if the VIX rises, money will flow back to the dollar as a safety haven, and that will precipitate gold's decline.

That correction in gold may be a good entry point for gold bugs, or for accumulation of more gold mining shares.

Disclosure: I am long gold mining shares.

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