Monday, May 14, 2012

A Greek exit from the Euro

According to a JPMorgan analyst (the investment bank is having troubles of its own), a Greek exit from the European Monetary Union would have the following adverse consequences:

The consequences for Greece would be clearly negative, if not catastrophic following an exit: high inflation, fuel shortages, big reduction in living standards, increase in social tensions or even unrest, political isolation internationally. This is why the chances of a Greek exit should be logically significantly below 50%.
I would agree with that scenario, but disagree on the handicapping:  an exit will happen, and while catastrophic in the short-term, it is the only solution for Greece's long-term viability.   A sovereign country's ability to borrow and overspend has its limits and Greece has reached its fiscal cul-de-sac.  The other developed countries should take note of that reality.

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