Sunday, November 13, 2011

Gold traders most bullish since 2004 on debt crisis

This actually worries me a bit that the big money is bullish on gold.  Even the big money gets it wrong sometimes.  Here's the normal sequence of bubbles:

1) the smart money buys the most despised asset nobody wants--usually at bottoms,
2) the big money moves in, driving prices up, setting up the masses for the slaughterhouse,
3) the dumb money drives prices further into the stratosphere.  This is the manic phase of the bubble.
4) when the bubble collapses, the dumb money is left holding the bag.  The dumb money always gets in last--at price peaks.  Don't be a bag holder.

But if this is house money (i.e., you're up big already), enjoy the ride (i.e. this decade-long secular bull market).  And if it dips in a big way, back up the truck, and accumulate.

See disclaimers in the side bar.

Disclosure:  long precious metals.

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