Thursday, April 28, 2011

Why the experts missed the crash
Why are so many experts so wrong, yet people keep listening to them? Who really is worth listening to about the future? The author of Expert Political Judgement builds on Isaah Berlin's characterization of judgment modes into Hedgehogs (who know one big thing) and Foxes (who know many things). Hedgehogs don't notice and don't care when they're wrong; that's why they're so compelling. Foxes learn.

I agree with Tetlock, but he completely misses the mark when he says Lawrence Summers has good predictive ability.  Summers was instrumental in levering up the US banking system under Clinton, which subsequently crashed a decade later.  On the other hand, Summers resigned from Obama's cabinet last year, a possible precursor to another financial crisis.

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