Sunday, February 21, 2010

Who didn't see the crisis coming?

Here are Dr. Alice Rivlin's credentials, which are quite impressive:

http://www.brookings.edu/experts/rivlina.aspx

Current Positions
Visiting Professor, Public Policy Institute, Georgetown University

Past Positions
Henry Cohen Professor, Milano Graduate School of Management and Urban Policy, New School University (2001-2003);Chair, District of Columbia Financial Management Assistance Authority (1998-2001);Vice Chair, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System (1996-99);Director, White House Office of Management and Budget (1994-96);Deputy Director, White House Office of Management and Budget (1993-94);Recipient, MacArthur Foundation Prize Fellowship (1983);Hirst Professor of Public Policy, George Mason University;Director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institution;Founding Director, Congressional Budget Office (1975-83);Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (1968-69);President, American Economic Association

Yet, in this Bloomberg article, the first two paragraphs read:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aK0qZPTFUG.k
The big lesson of 2009 was that financial panic can be catastrophic for the economy if caused by a bursting housing bubble with an enormously overleveraged financial structure perched on top of it.

That sounds obvious, but the best minds of our economic establishment didn’t see it coming. The unforeseen losses were off the charts: millions of jobs, widespread foreclosures and business failures, plummeting wealth and confidence, and immeasurable human misery.

So are the best minds not really that bright--or were they hiding something? Because I recall reading a few articles by economic dullards who EXACTLY predicted this financial crisis, only to be marginalized and ridiculed by the mainstream financial community and press. This list includes Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Jim Rogers, and Marc Faber.

Perhaps Dr. Rivkin should expand her circle of "best minds"--at least beyond academia and the government. She rightly blames the "clueless Titans" of banking, but she totally absolves her former colleagues in government. I guess it's not a mea culpa if one doesn't admit to mistakes.

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