Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Supply side of gold

There has been much focus on the fundamentals of the rally in gold prices, mostly on increasing demand for nonmonetary (jewelry, art, industrial) and monetary (investment) reasons. Gold has a consistent record of having store of value over centuries, and has been a useful hedge against inflation, financial crises, and currency debasement.

But the supply side of the equation hasn't been addressed by the mainstream financial media. The bullish case on the supply side is equally compelling. Gold production peaked in 2001 and is in steady decline, despite much higher prices. Higher demand and lower supply can only have one long-term outcome.

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