Friday, February 20, 2009

Answers to your questions



Some of you have asked some key questions, so I will answer them to the best of my knowledge. This is not financial advice, but strategies I have either deployed or considered for my own portfolio:

1) Buy gold bullion, either in 10 or 100 ounce bars. This will have the lowest premium, but then you need to take delivery, store it and secure it. There will be a serial number attached to each bar. Check to make sure the dealers are reputable, or you can take delivery on the COMEX futures exchange.

2) Buy gold coins (stick to South African Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leafs, U.S. Eagles). Since coins are smaller, these are more transferable than bullion, but you pay a higher premium above delivery price. Wait until the premiums are in the single digits, as demand has exceeded supply. If you're lucky, you can buy them from the U.S. mint (they are allocated due to high demand) or through a reputable dealer.

3) For potential extra returns, I have also purchased rare gold and silver coins. The St. Gaudens $20 double eagles (about 100 years old) are valued by numismatic collectors due to their beauty and liquidity. Morgan Silver dollars are also liquid (coined in the late 1800's). Obviously, coins in better condition are rare and command a higher premium. Visit a reputable coin dealer with reliable grading services.

4) Buy the gold exchange traded fund (ETF), which tracks the price of gold, and trades like a stock. I cannot give specific recommendations so Google it.

5) Buy individual gold mining shares. These companies usually give you greater leverage than the actual price of gold. They offer greater reward, but also greater risk. However, not all gold mining companies are created equal, as some are mature, leading producers, while some are junior companies with even higher potential for appreciation. They may be less liquid to trade and inherently riskier. Either way, you must perform due diligence as the company's prospects are not just dependent on the price of gold, but also other factors like geopolitical risk, environmentalist risk, production risk, labor risk, earnings risk, etc. just like other sector equities.

6) Buy a gold mining share ETF, which is a basket of various gold mining share companies. Again, it tracks the shares of these companies and trades like a stock.

When purchasing items (4), (5), and (6) above, you must put in mental trailing stop-loss thresholds. While equities and ETF's offer liquidity and convenience, they also are more volatile. To limit losses, you should keep a mental trailing stop, but do NOT indicate this stop loss to your broker. Because these stocks are volatile, unscrupulous market manipulators can drive the price down artificially to your threshold, stopping you out of the trade, guaranteeing your loss, perhaps 20% or 25%, or whatever you choose. Since these shares are volatile, do not keep your stop-loss too tight, as you will be stopped out too often. Volatility invites higher reward and risk, so you have to widen your stop-loss limits.

If you are risk-adverse, stick to bullion and coins.

And the reason why you want to have a trailing-stop is because as gold and/or gold share prices rise, you want to lock in profits along the way. For instance, I rode ABX from $19 up to $38/share. However, if it drops to $29, I am stopped out of the trade, as I put in a sell order (25% below the $38 level). I've locked in a $10/share profit. However, if it continues to rise to $50, I'm still in the trade, increasing my profits.

Remember: when placing buy or sell orders, use limit orders, not market orders.

7) You can do all of the above with silver as well. In fact, silver may have more upside as the gold/silver ratio is at the higher end of its historical range.

In summary, don't view gold as a vehicle to get rich quick. History has shown that in times of financial crisis, that certainly can happen, but think of using gold or gold mining shares as a diversification away from financial and paper assets (stocks, bonds, currencies, real estate). Gold has historically held its purchasing power for thousands of years, so treat it as a hedge against inflation, as well as a hedge against uncertainty in markets.

Good luck to us all.

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